Playoff picture · 2026

Where each team stands for a tournament spot, and where the season is projected to finish. Clinched and eliminated are exact: they hold for every possible combination of the games still to play. Everything else is a projection from simulating the rest of the season: each team's expected final record, its projected seed, its chance to make the field, and its chance to win the title.

Same Crabtree method as the standings; qualifier counts are the MPA's. Status (clinched / eliminated / in the hunt) is exact math. The projected columns: final record, projected final seed, playoff chance and title chances: come from simulating the rest of the season about 1500 times from the power ratings and re-seeding by Crabtree each run. Title is the chance to win the division (for Class C, statewide, that's the state title). Teams play different numbers of games, usually 8, sometimes 9, and out-of-state opponents count in a team's record but not in the Crabtree strength-of-schedule pool, so projected records aren't all out of the same total; seeding is by the Crabtree rate (win% + schedule), not total wins. The projected seeds feed the projected bracket below; play out your own scenarios in the simulator.

Projected bracket · Class D South

Seeded by the projected final standings above, then the power rating projects each game (the higher-rated team advances, the better seed hosts).

Projected Class D South champion: Winthrop. Projected state final: Winslow vs Winthrop → Winslow (est. 56%).

Projected finish by division