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Foxcroft Academy Class C
Projected final record 6–3 · projected #3 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Foxcroft can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Foxcroft is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves Foxcroft's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Foxcroft lands.
| Date | Game | Foxcroft's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs John Bapst | Foxcroft wins → #3 in | John Bapst wins → #4 in |
| Sat 10/10 | vs Nokomis | Foxcroft wins → #3 in | Nokomis wins → #4 in |
| Sat 10/17 | vs Hampden | Foxcroft wins → #3 in | Hampden wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Brewer | Foxcroft wins → #3 in | Brewer wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Leavitt | Foxcroft wins → #2 in | Leavitt wins → #3 in |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Greely vs Medomak Valley | Medomak Valley wins → #2 in | Greely wins → #3 in |
Foxcroft's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Foxcroft isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Foxcroft wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Hermon Class C | L 0–24 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Oceanside Class C | W 28–12 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Gardiner Class C | W 28–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Madison Class D North | W 41–7 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | John Bapst Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/10 | at Nokomis Class C | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | Hampden Class C | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Brewer Class C | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at Leavitt Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Hermon | 4-0 | yes |
| Oceanside | 3-1 | yes |
| Gardiner | 3-1 | yes |
| Madison | 1-2 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 11 wins / 15 games = 0.7333
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.7333) × 100 = 148.333
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 15.556, tournament index 42.1517 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
2.4 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -9.0 to 13.9) · rank #24 among 11-man teams · est. 9% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, +2.9 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Hermon | L 0–24 | -4.0 |
| Fri 9/11 Oceanside | W 28–12 | -0.3 |
| Fri 9/18 Gardiner | W 28–0 | +4.1 |
| Fri 9/25 at Madison | W 41–7 | +4.0 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.