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Gardiner Area Class C
Projected final record 4–5 · projected #7 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Gardiner can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Gardiner is the #5 seed
These are the games whose result moves Gardiner's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Gardiner lands.
| Date | Game | Gardiner's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Wells | Gardiner wins → #5 in | Wells wins → #7 in |
| Sat 10/17 | vs Medomak Valley | Gardiner wins → #5 in | Medomak Valley wins → #7 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Hermon vs Oceanside | Hermon wins → #5 in | Oceanside wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: John Bapst vs Foxcroft | Foxcroft wins → #5 in | John Bapst wins → #6 in |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Hampden vs Nokomis | Nokomis wins → #5 in | Hampden wins → #6 in |
| Thu 10/8 | other game: Freeport vs Wells | Freeport wins → #5 in | Wells wins → #6 in |
Gardiner's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Gardiner isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Gardiner wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Nokomis Class C | W 37–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at York Class C | W 28–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Foxcroft Class C | L 0–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Brewer Class C | W 42–20 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Wells Class C | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Leavitt Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | at Medomak Valley Class C | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Cony Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Greely Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Nokomis | 1-3 | yes |
| York | 0-4 | yes |
| Foxcroft | 3-1 | yes |
| Brewer | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 5 wins / 16 games = 0.3125
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.3125) × 100 = 106.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 16.667, tournament index 13.4568 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-3.2 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -14.9 to 8.6) · rank #30 among 11-man teams · est. 2% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, +2.5 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Nokomis | W 37–6 | +3.6 |
| Fri 9/11 at York | W 28–0 | +3.4 |
| Fri 9/18 at Foxcroft | L 0–28 | -5.7 |
| Fri 9/25 Brewer | W 42–20 | -1.6 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.