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Nokomis Class C
Projected final record 4–5 · projected #8 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Nokomis can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Nokomis is the #9 seed
These are the games whose result moves Nokomis's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Nokomis lands.
| Date | Game | Nokomis's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/10 | vs Foxcroft in/out | Nokomis wins → #8 in | Foxcroft wins → #9 out |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Leavitt in/out | Nokomis wins → #8 in | Leavitt wins → #9 out |
| Sat 10/24 | vs Wells in/out | Nokomis wins → #8 in | Wells wins → #9 out |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Oceanside in/out | Nokomis wins → #8 in | Oceanside wins → #9 out |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: York vs Brewer in/out | Brewer wins → #8 in | York wins → #9 out |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Oak Hill vs York in/out | Oak Hill wins → #8 in | York wins → #9 out |
Nokomis's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Nokomis isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Nokomis wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Gardiner Class C | L 6–37 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | Hermon Class C | L 6–28 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | Brewer Class C | W 42–8 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Greely Class C | L 7–35 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | Hampden Class C | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/10 | Foxcroft Class C | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Leavitt Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | Wells Class C | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at Oceanside Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Gardiner | 3-1 | yes |
| Hermon | 4-0 | yes |
| Brewer | 1-3 | yes |
| Greely | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 11 wins / 16 games = 0.6875
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.6875) × 100 = 93.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 5.556, tournament index 6.1728 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-13.4 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -25.1 to -1.6) · rank #40 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, +2.7 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Gardiner | L 6–37 | -3.6 |
| Sat 9/12 Hermon | L 6–28 | -0.9 |
| Sat 9/19 Brewer | W 42–8 | +3.5 |
| Fri 9/25 at Greely | L 7–35 | -0.8 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.