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Hermon Class C
Projected final record 6–3 · projected #4 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Hermon can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Hermon is the #4 seed
These are the games whose result moves Hermon's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Hermon lands.
| Date | Game | Hermon's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/16 | vs Greely | Hermon wins → #2 in | Greely wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Leavitt | Hermon wins → #2 in | Leavitt wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/2 | vs Oceanside | Hermon wins → #4 in | Oceanside wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: John Bapst vs Foxcroft | John Bapst wins → #3 in | Foxcroft wins → #4 in |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Greely vs Medomak Valley | Medomak Valley wins → #3 in | Greely wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Oceanside vs Greely | Oceanside wins → #3 in | Greely wins → #4 in |
Hermon's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Hermon isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Hermon wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Foxcroft Class C | W 24–0 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | at Nokomis Class C | W 28–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Hampden Class C | W 56–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Medomak Valley Class C | W 51–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Oceanside Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Thu 10/8 | Brewer Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Greely Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Leavitt Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at York Class C | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Foxcroft | 3-1 | yes |
| Nokomis | 1-3 | yes |
| Hampden | 0-4 | yes |
| Medomak Valley | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 4 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 4 wins / 16 games = 0.2500
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.2500) × 100 = 125.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 22.222, tournament index 25.6790 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
8.2 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -3.3 to 19.7) · rank #18 among 11-man teams · est. 25% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, +9.2 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Foxcroft | W 24–0 | +4.5 |
| Sat 9/12 at Nokomis | W 28–6 | +0.7 |
| Fri 9/18 at Hampden | W 56–0 | -2.7 |
| Fri 9/25 Medomak Valley | W 51–6 | -0.3 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.