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Brewer Class C
Projected final record 2–7 · projected #12 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Brewer can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Brewer is the #11 seed
These are the games whose result moves Brewer's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Brewer lands.
| Date | Game | Brewer's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Hampden vs Nokomis | Nokomis wins → #11 out | Hampden wins → #12 out |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Medomak Valley vs Hampden | Medomak Valley wins → #11 out | Hampden wins → #12 out |
| Sat 10/17 | other game: Hampden vs Foxcroft | Foxcroft wins → #11 out | Hampden wins → #12 out |
| Sat 10/24 | other game: York vs Hampden | York wins → #11 out | Hampden wins → #12 out |
| Fri 10/30 | other game: Hampden vs Wells | Wells wins → #11 out | Hampden wins → #12 out |
Brewer's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Brewer isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Brewer wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Belfast Class D North | L 26–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Hampden Class C | W 40–26 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | at Nokomis Class C | L 8–42 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Gardiner Class C | L 20–42 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | York Class C | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Thu 10/8 | at Hermon Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Oceanside Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Foxcroft Class C | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Medomak Valley Class C | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Belfast | 1-3 | yes |
| Hampden | 0-4 | yes |
| Nokomis | 1-3 | yes |
| Gardiner | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 5 wins / 16 games = 0.3125
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.3125) × 100 = 56.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 5.556, tournament index 1.1111 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-27.0 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -38.6 to -15.5) · rank #51 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, -11.3 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Belfast | L 26–28 | -4.1 |
| Fri 9/11 Hampden | W 40–26 | +2.5 |
| Sat 9/19 at Nokomis | L 8–42 | -2.7 |
| Fri 9/25 at Gardiner | L 20–42 | +1.3 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.