More
Hampden Academy Class C
Projected final record 3–6 · projected #11 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Hampden can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Hampden is the #12 seed
These are the games whose result moves Hampden's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Hampden lands.
| Date | Game | Hampden's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/3 | vs Nokomis | Hampden wins → #11 out | Nokomis wins → #12 out |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Medomak Valley | Hampden wins → #11 out | Medomak Valley wins → #12 out |
| Sat 10/17 | vs Foxcroft | Hampden wins → #11 out | Foxcroft wins → #12 out |
| Sat 10/24 | vs York | Hampden wins → #11 out | York wins → #12 out |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Wells | Hampden wins → #11 out | Wells wins → #12 out |
Hampden's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Hampden isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Hampden wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Oceanside Class C | L 12–50 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Brewer Class C | L 26–40 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Hermon Class C | L 0–56 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | MCI Class D North | L 13–28 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | at Nokomis Class C | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Medomak Valley Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | at Foxcroft Class C | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | York Class C | 2:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at Wells Class C | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Oceanside | 3-1 | yes |
| Brewer | 1-3 | yes |
| Hermon | 4-0 | yes |
| MCI | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 0 / 4 = 0.0000
Opponents pooled = 11 wins / 16 games = 0.6875
Crabtree = (0.0000 + 0.6875) × 100 = 68.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 1.000, tournament index 0.0000 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-30.8 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -42.2 to -19.4) · rank #53 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, -8.2 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Oceanside | L 12–50 | -1.8 |
| Fri 9/11 at Brewer | L 26–40 | -2.0 |
| Fri 9/18 Hermon | L 0–56 | +2.3 |
| Fri 9/25 MCI | L 13–28 | -4.4 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.