More
Oceanside/North Haven Class C
Projected final record 4–5 · projected #9 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Oceanside can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Oceanside is the #7 seed
These are the games whose result moves Oceanside's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Oceanside lands.
| Date | Game | Oceanside's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Hermon | Oceanside wins → #4 in | Hermon wins → #7 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Greely | Oceanside wins → #5 in | Greely wins → #7 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Gardiner vs Wells | Wells wins → #6 in | Gardiner wins → #7 in |
| Sat 10/17 | other game: Gardiner vs Medomak Valley | Medomak Valley wins → #6 in | Gardiner wins → #7 in |
| Sat 10/17 | other game: Wells vs York | York wins → #6 in | Wells wins → #7 in |
| Sat 10/24 | other game: Wells vs Nokomis | Nokomis wins → #6 in | Wells wins → #7 in |
Oceanside's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Oceanside isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Oceanside wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Hampden Class C | W 50–12 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Foxcroft Class C | L 12–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Belfast Class D North | W 44–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | York Class C | W 14–12 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Hermon Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Greely Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Brewer Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Medomak Valley Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Nokomis Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Hampden | 0-4 | yes |
| Foxcroft | 3-1 | yes |
| Belfast | 1-3 | yes |
| York | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 4 wins / 16 games = 0.2500
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.2500) × 100 = 100.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 15.556, tournament index 9.1667 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-12.0 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -23.4 to -0.5) · rank #38 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, -9.2 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Hampden | W 50–12 | +1.9 |
| Fri 9/11 at Foxcroft | L 12–28 | +0.4 |
| Fri 9/18 at Belfast | W 44–6 | +2.9 |
| Fri 9/25 York | W 14–12 | -2.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.