Picks

Picks · frozen, then graded

The rule. On the Thursday morning that a week begins, the rating writes down a pick and a win chance for every game of that week, before any of them is played. The pick is never edited. (Week 3 is the one exception: its picks were written on the Tuesday evening the page first went live: earlier than the rule, never later.) After the games it is graded against two yardsticks anyone can check: "take the team with the higher Crabtree Index" (the official playoff number) and "take the home team". Picks are a test of the rating, not advice: nothing here is advice of any kind.

Season to date

84% of 37 graded games called correctly · Crabtree pick 70% (33 games where one team had the higher index) · home team 59% · average margin error 9.9 points · 39 picks awaiting results.

Week 5

Date	Game	Pick	Chance	By	Crabtree pick	Result
Thu 10/1	Sacopee Valley at Traip	Traip	est. 62%	4.1	Sacopee Valley	pending
	Sacopee Valley: win #4–#5 · loss #6–#7Traip: win #5 · loss #6
Fri 10/2	Bonny Eagle at Windham	Bonny Eagle	est. 92%	18.5	Bonny Eagle	pending
	Bonny Eagle: win #1–#2 · loss #1–#3Windham: win #2–#3 · loss #2–#3
Fri 10/2	South Portland at Sanford	South Portland	est. 95%	20.8	South Portland	pending
	South Portland: win #4–#5 · loss #5–#6Sanford: win #5–#7 · loss #7
Fri 10/2	Gardiner at Wells	Gardiner	est. 53%	0.9	Wells	pending
	Gardiner: win #2–#6 · loss #5–#7Wells: win #2–#6 · loss #5–#7
Fri 10/2	Mt. Ararat at Ellsworth	Ellsworth	est. 93%	19.3	Ellsworth	pending
	Mt. Ararat: win #6 · loss #6Ellsworth: win #1–#2 · loss #1–#3
Fri 10/2	Scarborough at Edward Little	Edward Little	est. 66%	5.2	Edward Little	pending
	Scarborough: win #5–#6 · loss #6–#7Edward Little: win #4–#5 · loss #4–#7
Fri 10/2	Morse at Freeport	Freeport	est. 86%	13.8	Freeport	pending
	Morse: win #1–#3 · loss #2–#5Freeport: win #1 · loss #1–#2
Fri 10/2	Winslow at Mattanawcook	Winslow	est. 94%	20.3	Winslow	pending
	Winslow: win #1 · loss #1–#3Mattanawcook: win #1–#4 · loss #3–#6
Fri 10/2	Belfast at Mountain Valley	Mountain Valley	est. 72%	7.5	Belfast	pending
	Belfast: win #6–#7 · loss #7Mountain Valley: win #7 · loss #7
Fri 10/2	Lisbon at Poland	Poland	est. 59%	3.1	Poland	pending
	Lisbon: win #4–#6 · loss #6Poland: win #3–#5 · loss #5–#6
Fri 10/2	Oxford Hills at Lewiston	Oxford Hills	est. 99%	32.3	Oxford Hills	pending
	Oxford Hills: win #1–#3 · loss #2–#3Lewiston: win #5–#7 · loss #7
Fri 10/2	Hermon at Oceanside	Hermon	est. 91%	17.4	Hermon	pending
	Hermon: win #1–#3 · loss #2–#6Oceanside: win #1–#6 · loss #5–#8
Fri 10/2	Washington Academy at Stearns	Stearns	est. 89%	16.1	Stearns	pending
	Washington Academy: win #1–#3 · loss #2–#4Stearns: win #1 · loss #1–#3
Fri 10/2	Spruce Mountain at Orono	Spruce Mountain	est. 79%	10.7	Spruce Mountain	pending
	Spruce Mountain: win #2–#4 · loss #2–#5Orono: win #2–#4 · loss #2–#5
Fri 10/2	Old Town at Houlton	Old Town	est. 99%	28.5	Old Town	pending
	Old Town: win #1–#2 · loss #1–#4Houlton: win #3–#5 · loss #4–#5
Fri 10/2	Cape Elizabeth at Waterville	Cape Elizabeth	est. 95%	21.5	Cape Elizabeth	pending
	Cape Elizabeth: win #2–#3 · loss #2–#5Waterville: win #2–#5 · loss #4–#5
Fri 10/2	MCI at Madison	Madison	est. 60%	3.5	–	pending
	MCI: win #1–#4 · loss #4–#6Madison: win #1–#3 · loss #3–#6
Fri 10/2	Noble at Massabesic	Massabesic	est. 71%	7.4	Massabesic	pending
	Noble: win #1–#3 · loss #4–#5Massabesic: win #1–#3 · loss #3–#4
Fri 10/2	Fryeburg at Messalonskee	Fryeburg	est. 87%	14.8	Fryeburg	pending
	Fryeburg: win #3 · loss #3–#5Messalonskee: win #3–#6 · loss #5–#7
Fri 10/2	Marshwood at Falmouth	Falmouth	est. 57%	2.4	Marshwood	pending
	Marshwood: win #1 · loss #1–#4Falmouth: win #1–#3 · loss #3–#5
Fri 10/2	John Bapst at Foxcroft	Foxcroft	est. 94%	20.8	Foxcroft	pending
	John Bapst: win #1–#4 · loss #3–#5Foxcroft: win #1–#3 · loss #1–#5
Fri 10/2	Westbrook at Biddeford	Westbrook	est. 52%	0.6	Biddeford	pending
	Westbrook: win #2–#5 · loss #5–#6Biddeford: win #1–#4 · loss #2–#5
Fri 10/2	OOB at Boothbay	OOB	est. 96%	22.5	OOB	pending
	OOB: win #1 · loss #1–#3Boothbay: win #1–#3 · loss #2–#4
Fri 10/2	York at Brewer	York	est. 65%	5.2	York	pending
	York: win #8–#10 · loss #9–#12Brewer: win #9–#12 · loss #11–#12
Fri 10/2	Cony at Lawrence	Lawrence	est. 72%	7.4	Cony	pending
	Cony: win #1 · loss #2Lawrence: win #1 · loss #2
Fri 10/2	Deering at Kennebunk	Kennebunk	est. 91%	17.8	Kennebunk	pending
	Deering: win #4–#6 · loss #6–#7Kennebunk: win #1–#3 · loss #2–#5
Fri 10/2	Leavitt at Dirigo	Leavitt	est. 98%	26.7	Leavitt	pending
	Leavitt: win #1–#3 · loss #1–#5Dirigo: win #2–#5 · loss #3–#6
Sat 10/3	Maranacook at Telstar	Telstar	est. 51%	0.4	Maranacook	pending
	Maranacook: win #1–#3 · loss #2–#4Telstar: win #2–#4 · loss #3–#5
Sat 10/3	Greely at Medomak Valley	Greely	est. 94%	20.5	Greely	pending
	Greely: win #2–#6 · loss #5–#7Medomak Valley: win #8–#10 · loss #9–#12
Sat 10/3	Dexter at Mount View	Dexter	est. 84%	12.8	Dexter	pending
	Dexter: win #3–#5 · loss #5Mount View: win #6–#7 · loss #7
Sat 10/3	Hampden at Nokomis	Nokomis	est. 94%	20.2	Nokomis	pending
	Hampden: win #8–#11 · loss #10–#12Nokomis: win #7–#9 · loss #8–#11
Sat 10/3	Yarmouth at MDI	Yarmouth	est. 99%	29.3	Yarmouth	pending
	Yarmouth: win #1 · loss #1MDI: win #1–#3 · loss #3–#4
Sat 10/3	Skowhegan at Camden Hills	Skowhegan	est. 55%	1.7	Skowhegan	pending
	Skowhegan: win #3–#4 · loss #4–#5Camden Hills: win #6–#8 · loss #8
Sat 10/3	Winthrop at Oak Hill	Winthrop	est. 97%	25.1	Winthrop	pending
	Winthrop: win #2–#4 · loss #2–#4Oak Hill: win #3–#6 · loss #6–#7
Sat 10/3	Lake Region at Gray-NG	Gray-NG	est. 54%	1.3	Gray-NG	pending
	Lake Region: win #2–#5 · loss #5Gray-NG: win #2–#4 · loss #2–#5
Sat 10/3	Portland at Thornton	Thornton	est. 82%	12.1	Thornton	pending
	Portland: win #1 · loss #1–#3Thornton: win #1–#3 · loss #1–#4
Sat 10/3	Gorham at Cheverus	Cheverus	est. 96%	22.2	Gorham	pending
	Gorham: win #5–#6 · loss #6–#7Cheverus: win #6–#7 · loss #7
Sat 10/3	Mt. Blue at Brunswick	Mt. Blue	est. 52%	0.8	Mt. Blue	pending
	Mt. Blue: win #5–#6 · loss #7Brunswick: win #5–#6 · loss #6–#8

Frozen 2026-10-01T07:30.

Week 4

Date	Game	Pick	Chance	By	Crabtree pick	Result	Graded
Thu 9/24	Poland at Winthrop	Winthrop	est. 96%	27.1	Winthrop	34–6	✓
Thu 9/24	OOB at Old Town	Old Town	est. 85%	16.3	–	12–22	✕
Fri 9/25	Telstar at Cape Elizabeth	Cape Elizabeth	est. 89%	19.7	Cape Elizabeth	40–36	✓
Fri 9/25	Scarborough at Bonny Eagle	Bonny Eagle	est. 97%	30.2	Bonny Eagle	42–6	✓
Fri 9/25	Ellsworth at Yarmouth	Yarmouth	est. 92%	22.1	Yarmouth	60–8	✓
Fri 9/25	Cheverus at South Portland	South Portland	est. 60%	4.1	South Portland	27–20	✓
Fri 9/25	Spruce Mountain at Mt. Ararat	Spruce Mountain	est. 84%	15.8	Spruce Mountain	0–36	✓
Fri 9/25	Brewer at Gardiner	Gardiner	est. 93%	23.1	Gardiner	42–20	✓
Fri 9/25	Belfast at Mattanawcook	Mattanawcook	est. 60%	4.1	Belfast	41–20	✓
Fri 9/25	Brunswick at Skowhegan	Skowhegan	est. 82%	14.7	Skowhegan	19–17	✓
Fri 9/25	Lisbon at Morse	Morse	est. 68%	7.3	Morse	28–8	✓
Fri 9/25	Houlton at Dexter	Houlton	est. 66%	6.7	–	20–13	✕
Fri 9/25	Boothbay at Sacopee Valley	Boothbay	est. 54%	1.6	Sacopee Valley	14–32	✓
Fri 9/25	Dirigo at Mountain Valley	Dirigo	est. 74%	10.5	Dirigo	6–24	✓
Fri 9/25	Messalonskee at Cony	Cony	est. 93%	22.9	Cony	41–14	✓
Fri 9/25	Windham at Bangor	Bangor	est. 81%	14.1	Windham	14–21	✕
Fri 9/25	Lawrence at Mt. Blue	Lawrence	est. 78%	12.2	Lawrence	6–49	✓
Fri 9/25	Medomak Valley at Hermon	Hermon	est. 96%	27.6	Hermon	51–6	✓
Fri 9/25	Bucksport at Orono	Orono	est. 56%	2.6	Bucksport	67–28	✓
Fri 9/25	Thornton at Westbrook	Thornton	est. 76%	11.3	Thornton	0–42	✓
Fri 9/25	Foxcroft at Madison	Madison	est. 52%	0.6	Foxcroft	7–41	✕
Fri 9/25	Noble at Marshwood	Marshwood	est. 72%	9.2	Noble	52–51	✓
Fri 9/25	Biddeford at Falmouth	Falmouth	est. 59%	3.7	Biddeford	38–14	✓
Fri 9/25	Stearns at Lake Region	Stearns	est. 56%	2.3	Stearns	28–32	✓
Fri 9/25	Massabesic at Sanford	Massabesic	est. 92%	22.1	Massabesic	6–28	✓
Fri 9/25	Lewiston at Deering	Deering	est. 68%	7.2	Lewiston	26–6	✓
Fri 9/25	MCI at Hampden	MCI	est. 87%	17.6	MCI	13–28	✓
Fri 9/25	Edward Little at Portland	Portland	est. 87%	17.7	Portland	35–7	✓
Fri 9/25	York at Oceanside	Oceanside	est. 64%	5.7	–	14–12	✓
Fri 9/25	Nokomis at Greely	Greely	est. 89%	19.4	Greely	35–7	✓
Sat 9/26	Gray-NG at Washington Academy	Washington Academy	est. 54%	1.5	Washington Academy	26–37	✕
Sat 9/26	Wells at Leavitt	Leavitt	est. 87%	18.1	Leavitt	42–0	✓
Sat 9/26	Freeport at Winslow	Winslow	est. 56%	2.3	Freeport	14–6	✓
Sat 9/26	MDI at Waterville	MDI	est. 64%	5.9	Waterville	16–44	✓
Sat 9/26	Gorham at Kennebunk	Kennebunk	est. 87%	18.2	–	43–0	✓
Sat 9/26	John Bapst at Oak Hill	John Bapst	est. 59%	3.7	Oak Hill	12–26	✓
Sat 9/26	Traip at Mount View	Mount View	est. 57%	3.0	Traip	12–36	✕
Sat 9/26	Maranacook at Valley (Fort Kent)	Valley (Fort Kent)	est. 59%	3.8	–	pending

Frozen 2026-09-24T07:30.