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Lake Region at Gray-NG
Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · 5:30 PM · Gray-New Gloucester High School
Lake Region team page Gray-NG team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Gray-NG, est. 54%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · 8-Man Large South Crabtree
Where Gray-NG and Lake Region can land
Places #1 to #6 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #2 to #4 · Loss: #2 to #5
With a win: best is #2 est. 7% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Sacopee Valley beats Traip; Washington Academy beats Stearns; Maranacook beats Telstar; Dexter beats Mount View.
Even with a loss: best is #2 est. 0% chance
Has to happen Sacopee Valley beats Traip; Orono beats Spruce Mountain; Washington Academy beats Stearns; Waterville beats Cape Elizabeth; Maranacook beats Telstar; Dexter beats Mount View; MDI beats Yarmouth.
Win: #2 to #5 · Loss: #5
With a win: best is #2 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen Orono beats Spruce Mountain; Mt. Ararat beats Ellsworth; Stearns beats Washington Academy; Waterville beats Cape Elizabeth; Maranacook beats Telstar; Dexter beats Mount View.
Even with a loss: best is #5
#5 no matter what else happens this week.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 9 other games this weekend, including Sacopee Valley at Traip, Mt. Ararat at Ellsworth, Washington Academy at Stearns, Spruce Mountain at Orono, Old Town at Houlton, Cape Elizabeth at Waterville and 3 more. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Gray-NG won 1 of the last 2 meetings
Lake Region this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. Yarmouth | L 6–44 |
| Fri 9/11 | vs. Mt. Ararat | W 30–0 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Spruce Mountain | L 14–46 |
| Fri 9/25 | vs. Stearns | L 28–32 |
| Sat 10/3 | at Gray-NG | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | vs. Old Town | |
| Fri 10/16 | at Cape Elizabeth | |
| Sat 10/24 | at Traip |
Gray-NG this season
| Fri 9/4 | at Cape Elizabeth | L 20–42 |
| Sat 9/12 | vs. Madawaska | |
| Fri 9/18 | at Sacopee Valley | W 44–6 |
| Sat 9/26 | at Washington Academy | W 37–26 |
| Sat 10/3 | vs. Lake Region | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | vs. Mount View | |
| Fri 10/16 | vs. Mt. Ararat | |
| Fri 10/23 | at Yarmouth |
Recent meetings
| 2025 | Lake Region 37, Gray-NG 6 |
| 2023 | Gray-NG 50, Lake Region 12 |
From the past seasons in our records.
Quick answers
When and where do Lake Region and Gray-NG play?
Lake Region plays at Gray-NG on Sat, Oct 3, 2026 at 5:30 PM, at Gray-New Gloucester High School.
Who has the better chance, Lake Region or Gray-NG?
It is close to even: our power rating gives Gray-NG an est. 53% chance to win, a projected margin of est. 1 point.
What is Lake Region's record and Crabtree place?
Lake Region is 1–3 and #5 of 6 in 8-Man Large South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Gray-NG's record and Crabtree place?
Gray-NG is 2–1 and #3 of 6 in 8-Man Large South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Gray-NG's playoff seeding?
With a win, Gray-NG finishes the week between #2 to #4 in 8-Man Large South; with a loss, between #2 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Gray-NG still be #2 in 8-Man Large South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Gray-NG can finish the week #2 if Sacopee Valley beats Traip, Orono beats Spruce Mountain, Washington Academy beats Stearns, Waterville beats Cape Elizabeth, Maranacook beats Telstar, Dexter beats Mount View and MDI beats Yarmouth. Our rating puts that at est. 0%.
What does this game mean for Lake Region's playoff seeding?
With a win, Lake Region finishes the week between #2 to #5 in 8-Man Large South; with a loss, between #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Lake Region still be #5 in 8-Man Large South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Lake Region can finish the week #5. Our rating puts that at est. 100%.
Who won the last meeting between Lake Region and Gray-NG?
Lake Region won the last meeting in our records, 37–6 in 2025.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.