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Lake Region 8-Man Large South
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #3 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Lake Region can finish as high as #1 and as low as #6: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Lake Region is the #5 seed
These are the games whose result moves Lake Region's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Lake Region lands.
| Date | Game | Lake Region's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/3 | vs Gray-NG in/out | Lake Region wins → #4 in | Gray-NG wins → #5 out |
Lake Region's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Lake Region isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Lake Region wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Yarmouth 8-Man Large South | L 6–44 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Mt. Ararat 8-Man Large South | W 30–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Spruce Mountain 8-Man Large South | L 14–46 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Stearns 8-Man Small North | L 28–32 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | at Gray-NG 8-Man Large South | 5:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Old Town 8-Man Large North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Cape Elizabeth 8-Man Large South | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at Traip 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Yarmouth | 4-0 | yes |
| Mt. Ararat | 0-4 | yes |
| Spruce Mountain | 3-1 | yes |
| Stearns | 4-0 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 11 wins / 16 games = 0.6875
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.6875) × 100 = 93.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 3.750, tournament index 1.2500 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
6.7 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -5.4 to 18.8) · rank #7 among 8-man teams · est. 2% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large South, est. 1% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, +11.7 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Yarmouth | L 6–44 | -1.4 |
| Fri 9/11 Mt. Ararat | W 30–0 | +2.4 |
| Fri 9/18 at Spruce Mountain | L 14–46 | -3.6 |
| Fri 9/25 Stearns | L 28–32 | +1.4 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.