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Stearns/Schenck/Katahdin 8-Man Small North
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #2 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Stearns can finish as high as #1 and as low as #5: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Stearns is the #1 seed
These are the games whose result moves Stearns's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Stearns lands.
| Date | Game | Stearns's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Washington Academy | Stearns wins → #1 in | Washington Academy wins → #2 in |
Stearns's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Stearns isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Stearns wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Dexter 8-Man Small North | W 42–8 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | at Houlton 8-Man Large North | W 56–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Orono 8-Man Small North | W 40–20 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Lake Region 8-Man Large South | W 32–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Washington Academy 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Bucksport 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Ellsworth 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | Sacopee Valley 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Dexter | 1-3 | yes |
| Houlton | 0-4 | yes |
| Orono | 1-3 | yes |
| Lake Region | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 4 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 3 wins / 16 games = 0.1875
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.1875) × 100 = 118.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 12.500, tournament index 14.8661 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
15.8 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 3.9 to 27.8) · rank #5 among 8-man teams · est. 70% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small North, est. 6% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, +15.4 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Dexter | W 42–8 | -0.2 |
| Sat 9/12 at Houlton | W 56–0 | +0.1 |
| Fri 9/18 Orono | W 40–20 | +1.6 |
| Fri 9/25 at Lake Region | W 32–28 | -1.3 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.