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Orono 8-Man Small North
Projected final record 3–4 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 3 games to play, Orono can finish as high as #1 and as low as #5: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Orono is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves Orono's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Orono lands.
| Date | Game | Orono's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Spruce Mountain | Orono wins → #2 in | Spruce Mountain wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Dexter | Orono wins → #3 in | Dexter wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Yarmouth | Orono wins → #2 in | Yarmouth wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Stearns vs Bucksport | Stearns wins → #3 in | Bucksport wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Fort Kent vs Washington Academy | Fort Kent wins → #2 in | Washington Academy wins → #3 in |
| Sat 10/24 | other game: Washington Academy vs Waterville | Waterville wins → #2 in | Washington Academy wins → #3 in |
Orono's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Orono isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Orono wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | Old Town 8-Man Large North | L 6–48 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at OOB 8-Man Small South | L 22–30 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Stearns 8-Man Small North | L 20–40 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Bucksport 8-Man Small North | W 67–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Spruce Mountain 8-Man Large South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Dexter 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Yarmouth 8-Man Large South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Madawaska non-MPA | canceled | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Old Town | 3-1 | yes |
| OOB | 4-0 | yes |
| Stearns | 4-0 | yes |
| Bucksport | 2-2 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 13 wins / 16 games = 0.8125
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.8125) × 100 = 106.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 2.857, tournament index 10.2041 over 7 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
3.8 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -8.1 to 15.8) · rank #10 among 8-man teams · est. 15% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small North, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, +2.3 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 Old Town | L 6–48 | -6.2 |
| Fri 9/11 at OOB | L 22–30 | +2.4 |
| Fri 9/18 at Stearns | L 20–40 | -1.7 |
| Fri 9/25 Bucksport | W 67–28 | +5.5 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.