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Old Orchard Beach 8-Man Small South
Projected final record 6–2 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, OOB can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often OOB wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | at Sacopee Valley 8-Man Small South | W 48–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Orono 8-Man Small North | W 30–22 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Telstar 8-Man Small South | W 36–8 | Recap → |
| Thu 9/24 | at Old Town 8-Man Large North | W 22–12 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Boothbay 8-Man Small South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Thu 10/8 | Traip 8-Man Small South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | Maranacook 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Mt. Ararat 8-Man Large South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Sacopee Valley | 0-4 | yes |
| Orono | 1-3 | yes |
| Telstar | 1-3 | yes |
| Old Town | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 4 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 5 wins / 16 games = 0.3125
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.3125) × 100 = 131.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 11.250, tournament index 20.4464 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
17.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 5.6 to 29.5) · rank #3 among 8-man teams · est. 75% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small South, est. 6% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, +16.1 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 at Sacopee Valley | W 48–0 | -1.7 |
| Fri 9/11 Orono | W 30–22 | -2.4 |
| Fri 9/18 Telstar | W 36–8 | +1.6 |
| Thu 9/24 at Old Town | W 22–12 | +4.3 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.