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Telstar Regional 8-Man Small South
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #2 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Telstar can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Telstar is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves Telstar's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Telstar lands.
| Date | Game | Telstar's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/24 | vs MDI | Telstar wins → #2 in | MDI wins → #3 in |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Dexter vs Mount View | Mount View wins → #2 in | Dexter wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Boothbay vs Maranacook | Boothbay wins → #2 in | Maranacook wins → #3 in |
Telstar's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Telstar isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Telstar wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Spruce Mountain 8-Man Large South | L 18–30 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | Traip 8-Man Small South | W 60–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at OOB 8-Man Small South | L 8–36 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Cape Elizabeth 8-Man Large South | L 36–40 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | Maranacook 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Sacopee Valley 8-Man Small South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | Boothbay 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at MDI 8-Man Large North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Spruce Mountain | 3-1 | yes |
| Traip | 1-3 | yes |
| OOB | 4-0 | yes |
| Cape Elizabeth | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 11 wins / 16 games = 0.6875
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.6875) × 100 = 93.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 2.500, tournament index 3.1250 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
0.7 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -11.2 to 12.6) · rank #13 among 8-man teams · est. 8% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small South, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, -4.2 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 Spruce Mountain | L 18–30 | +0.3 |
| Sat 9/12 Traip | W 60–0 | +1.9 |
| Fri 9/18 at OOB | L 8–36 | -1.5 |
| Fri 9/25 at Cape Elizabeth | L 36–40 | +1.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.