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Traip Academy 8-Man Small South
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #5 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Traip can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Traip is the #5 seed
These are the games whose result moves Traip's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Traip lands.
| Date | Game | Traip's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 10/8 | vs OOB in/out | Traip wins → #4 in | OOB wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Spruce Mountain in/out | Traip wins → #4 in | Spruce Mountain wins → #5 out |
| Sat 10/24 | vs Lake Region in/out | Traip wins → #4 in | Lake Region wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/23 | other game: Mount View vs Boothbay in/out | Mount View wins → #4 in | Boothbay wins → #5 out |
| Thu 10/1 | vs Sacopee Valley | Traip wins → #5 out | Sacopee Valley wins → #6 out |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Telstar vs Sacopee Valley | Telstar wins → #5 out | Sacopee Valley wins → #6 out |
Traip's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Traip isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Traip wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Maranacook 8-Man Small South | L 14–60 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | at Telstar 8-Man Small South | L 0–60 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | Washington Academy 8-Man Small North | L 6–66 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | at Mount View 8-Man Small South | W 36–12 | Recap → |
| Thu 10/1 | Sacopee Valley 8-Man Small South | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Thu 10/8 | at OOB 8-Man Small South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Spruce Mountain 8-Man Large South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | Lake Region 8-Man Large South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Maranacook | 3-0 | yes |
| Telstar | 1-3 | yes |
| Washington Academy | 3-1 | yes |
| Mount View | 0-3 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 7 wins / 14 games = 0.5000
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.5000) × 100 = 75.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 2.500, tournament index 1.2500 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-17.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -29.7 to -5.6) · rank #20 among 8-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small South, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, -1.2 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 Maranacook | L 14–60 | -2.9 |
| Sat 9/12 at Telstar | L 0–60 | -2.4 |
| Sat 9/19 Washington Academy | L 6–66 | -3.4 |
| Sat 9/26 at Mount View | W 36–12 | +4.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.