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Washington Academy 8-Man Small North
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #4 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Washington Academy can finish as high as #1 and as low as #5: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Washington Academy is the #2 seed
These are the games whose result moves Washington Academy's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Washington Academy lands.
| Date | Game | Washington Academy's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/16 | vs Bucksport | Washington Academy wins → #2 in | Bucksport wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/2 | vs Stearns | Washington Academy wins → #1 in | Stearns wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Fort Kent | Washington Academy wins → #2 in | Fort Kent wins → #3 in |
| Sat 10/24 | vs Waterville | Washington Academy wins → #2 in | Waterville wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Spruce Mountain vs Orono | Spruce Mountain wins → #2 in | Orono wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Orono vs Yarmouth | Yarmouth wins → #2 in | Orono wins → #3 in |
Washington Academy's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Washington Academy isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Washington Academy wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Houlton 8-Man Large North | W 36–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Dexter 8-Man Small North | W 62–14 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | at Traip 8-Man Small South | W 66–6 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | Gray-NG 8-Man Large South | L 26–37 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Stearns 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Fort Kent non-MPA | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Bucksport 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at Waterville 8-Man Large North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Houlton | 0-4 | yes |
| Dexter | 1-3 | yes |
| Traip | 1-3 | yes |
| Gray-NG | 2-1 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 4 wins / 15 games = 0.2667
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.2667) × 100 = 101.667
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 8.750, tournament index 9.7321 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
2.5 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -9.6 to 14.5) · rank #12 among 8-man teams · est. 11% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small North, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, -9.8 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Houlton | W 36–14 | +0.6 |
| Fri 9/11 at Dexter | W 62–14 | +3.5 |
| Sat 9/19 at Traip | W 66–6 | +3.2 |
| Sat 9/26 Gray-NG | L 26–37 | -4.5 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.