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Waterville 8-Man Large North
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #5 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Waterville can finish as high as #1 and as low as #5: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Waterville is the #5 seed
These are the games whose result moves Waterville's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Waterville lands.
| Date | Game | Waterville's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Cape Elizabeth in/out | Waterville wins → #4 in | Cape Elizabeth wins → #5 out |
| Sat 10/10 | vs Houlton in/out | Waterville wins → #4 in | Houlton wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Old Town in/out | Waterville wins → #4 in | Old Town wins → #5 out |
| Sat 10/24 | vs Washington Academy in/out | Waterville wins → #4 in | Washington Academy wins → #5 out |
Waterville's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Waterville isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Waterville wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Mount View 8-Man Small South | W 32–18 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Ellsworth 8-Man Large North | L 0–50 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Boothbay 8-Man Small South | L 8–30 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | MDI 8-Man Large North | L 16–44 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Cape Elizabeth 8-Man Large South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/10 | at Houlton 8-Man Large North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Old Town 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | Washington Academy 8-Man Small North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Mount View | 0-3 | yes |
| Ellsworth | 3-1 | yes |
| Boothbay | 2-1 | yes |
| MDI | 2-2 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 7 wins / 14 games = 0.5000
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.5000) × 100 = 75.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 2.500, tournament index 1.2500 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-18.2 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -30.1 to -6.3) · rank #21 among 8-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large North, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, -4.9 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 Mount View | W 32–18 | -0.2 |
| Fri 9/11 at Ellsworth | L 0–50 | +0.6 |
| Fri 9/18 at Boothbay | L 8–30 | -2.7 |
| Sat 9/26 MDI | L 16–44 | -2.5 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.