More
Boothbay Region 8-Man Small South
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #6 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Boothbay can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Boothbay is the #4 seed
These are the games whose result moves Boothbay's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Boothbay lands.
| Date | Game | Boothbay's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/23 | vs Mount View in/out | Boothbay wins → #4 in | Mount View wins → #5 out |
| Thu 10/8 | other game: Traip vs OOB in/out | OOB wins → #4 in | Traip wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Traip vs Spruce Mountain in/out | Spruce Mountain wins → #4 in | Traip wins → #5 out |
| Sat 10/24 | other game: Lake Region vs Traip in/out | Lake Region wins → #4 in | Traip wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Maranacook | Boothbay wins → #3 in | Maranacook wins → #4 in |
Boothbay's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Boothbay isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Boothbay wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Fort Kent non-MPA | postponed | Preview → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Bucksport 8-Man Small North | L 0–26 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Waterville 8-Man Large North | W 30–8 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Sacopee Valley 8-Man Small South | W 32–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | OOB 8-Man Small South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Maranacook 8-Man Small South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | at Telstar 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Mount View 8-Man Small South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Bucksport | 2-2 | yes |
| Waterville | 1-3 | yes |
| Sacopee Valley | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 3 = 0.6667
Opponents pooled = 3 wins / 12 games = 0.2500
Crabtree = (0.6667 + 0.2500) × 100 = 91.667
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 6.250, tournament index 4.3750 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-7.8 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -20.3 to 4.8) · rank #17 among 8-man teams · est. 1% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small South, est. 0% in all of 8-man
3 games of evidence; 25% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, -6.5 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/11 at Bucksport | L 0–26 | -6.9 |
| Fri 9/18 Waterville | W 30–8 | +3.4 |
| Fri 9/25 at Sacopee Valley | W 32–14 | +3.7 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.