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Sacopee Valley 8-Man Small South
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #4 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Sacopee Valley can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Sacopee Valley is the #6 seed
These are the games whose result moves Sacopee Valley's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Sacopee Valley lands.
| Date | Game | Sacopee Valley's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 10/1 | vs Traip | Sacopee Valley wins → #5 out | Traip wins → #6 out |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Telstar | Sacopee Valley wins → #5 out | Telstar wins → #6 out |
| Sat 10/24 | vs Stearns | Sacopee Valley wins → #5 out | Stearns wins → #6 out |
Sacopee Valley's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Sacopee Valley isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Sacopee Valley wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | OOB 8-Man Small South | L 0–48 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Maranacook 8-Man Small South | L 20–47 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Gray-NG 8-Man Large South | L 6–44 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Boothbay 8-Man Small South | L 14–32 | Recap → |
| Thu 10/1 | at Traip 8-Man Small South | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Telstar 8-Man Small South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | at Mount View 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at Stearns 8-Man Small North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| OOB | 4-0 | yes |
| Maranacook | 3-0 | yes |
| Gray-NG | 2-1 | yes |
| Boothbay | 2-1 | yes |
Own win% = 0 / 4 = 0.0000
Opponents pooled = 11 wins / 13 games = 0.8462
Crabtree = (0.0000 + 0.8462) × 100 = 84.615
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 1.000, tournament index 0.0000 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-18.9 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -31.0 to -6.9) · rank #22 among 8-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small South, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, -7.3 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 OOB | L 0–48 | +1.8 |
| Fri 9/11 at Maranacook | L 20–47 | +0.3 |
| Fri 9/18 Gray-NG | L 6–44 | -2.9 |
| Fri 9/25 Boothbay | L 14–32 | -3.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.