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Maranacook Community 8-Man Small South
Projected final record 4–3 · projected #3 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Maranacook can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Maranacook is the #2 seed
These are the games whose result moves Maranacook's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Maranacook lands.
| Date | Game | Maranacook's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/9 | vs Boothbay | Maranacook wins → #2 in | Boothbay wins → #4 in |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Dexter vs Mount View | Dexter wins → #2 in | Mount View wins → #3 in |
| Sat 10/24 | other game: Telstar vs MDI | MDI wins → #2 in | Telstar wins → #3 in |
Maranacook's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Maranacook isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Maranacook wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | at Traip 8-Man Small South | W 60–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Sacopee Valley 8-Man Small South | W 47–20 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Dexter 8-Man Small North | W 54–16 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | at Valley (Fort Kent) non-MPA | canceled | Preview → |
| Sat 10/3 | at Telstar 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Boothbay 8-Man Small South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | at OOB 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Spruce Mountain 8-Man Large South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Traip | 1-3 | yes |
| Sacopee Valley | 0-4 | yes |
| Dexter | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 3 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 2 wins / 12 games = 0.1667
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.1667) × 100 = 116.667
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 8.571, tournament index 11.1224 over 7 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
3.1 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -9.6 to 15.8) · rank #11 among 8-man teams · est. 15% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small South, est. 0% in all of 8-man
3 games of evidence; 25% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, -11.9 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 at Traip | W 60–14 | +4.2 |
| Fri 9/11 Sacopee Valley | W 47–20 | -0.4 |
| Fri 9/18 Dexter | W 54–16 | +2.8 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.