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Spruce Mountain 8-Man Large South
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #2 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Spruce Mountain can finish as high as #1 and as low as #6: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Spruce Mountain is the #2 seed
These are the games whose result moves Spruce Mountain's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Spruce Mountain lands.
| Date | Game | Spruce Mountain's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/9 | vs Cape Elizabeth | Spruce Mountain wins → #2 in | Cape Elizabeth wins → #3 in |
Spruce Mountain's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Spruce Mountain isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Spruce Mountain wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | at Telstar 8-Man Small South | W 30–18 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | Yarmouth 8-Man Large South | L 0–48 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Lake Region 8-Man Large South | W 46–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Mt. Ararat 8-Man Large South | W 36–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Orono 8-Man Small North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Cape Elizabeth 8-Man Large South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Traip 8-Man Small South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Maranacook 8-Man Small South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | 1-3 | yes |
| Yarmouth | 4-0 | yes |
| Lake Region | 1-3 | yes |
| Mt. Ararat | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 6 wins / 16 games = 0.3750
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.3750) × 100 = 112.500
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 10.000, tournament index 9.0625 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
17.3 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 5.2 to 29.4) · rank #4 among 8-man teams · est. 10% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large South, est. 7% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, +13.6 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 at Telstar | W 30–18 | -0.3 |
| Sat 9/12 Yarmouth | L 0–48 | -4.4 |
| Fri 9/18 Lake Region | W 46–14 | +3.5 |
| Fri 9/25 at Mt. Ararat | W 36–0 | +1.7 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.