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Yarmouth 8-Man Large South
Projected final record 6–2 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Yarmouth can finish as high as #1 and as low as #6: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Yarmouth wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Lake Region 8-Man Large South | W 44–6 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | at Spruce Mountain 8-Man Large South | W 48–0 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | Cape Elizabeth 8-Man Large South | W 82–40 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Ellsworth 8-Man Large North | W 60–8 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | at MDI 8-Man Large North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Mt. Ararat 8-Man Large South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Orono 8-Man Small North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Gray-NG 8-Man Large South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Lake Region | 1-3 | yes |
| Spruce Mountain | 3-1 | yes |
| Cape Elizabeth | 3-1 | yes |
| Ellsworth | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 4 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 10 wins / 16 games = 0.6250
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.6250) × 100 = 162.500
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 15.000, tournament index 40.6250 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
32.5 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 20.5 to 44.6) · rank #1 among 8-man teams · est. 87% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large South, est. 71% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, +10.5 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Lake Region | W 44–6 | +1.4 |
| Sat 9/12 at Spruce Mountain | W 48–0 | +4.4 |
| Sat 9/19 Cape Elizabeth | W 82–40 | -0.4 |
| Fri 9/25 Ellsworth | W 60–8 | +0.6 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.