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Yarmouth at MDI
Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · 1:00 PM · MDI HS
Yarmouth team page MDI team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Yarmouth, est. 99%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · 8-Man Large North Crabtree
Where MDI and Yarmouth can land
Places #1 to #5 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #1 to #3 · Loss: #3 to #4
With a win: best is #1 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen Mt. Ararat beats Ellsworth; Houlton beats Old Town.
Likeliest way also has Spruce Mountain beats Orono.
Even with a loss: best is #3 est. 97% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Old Town beats Houlton.
Win: #1 · Loss: #1
With a win: best is #1
#1 no matter what else happens this week.
Even with a loss: best is #1
#1 no matter what else happens this week.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 10 other games this weekend, including Sacopee Valley at Traip, Mt. Ararat at Ellsworth, Washington Academy at Stearns, Spruce Mountain at Orono, Old Town at Houlton, Cape Elizabeth at Waterville and 4 more. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Yarmouth has won 4 straight
Yarmouth this season
| Fri 9/4 | at Lake Region | W 44–6 |
| Sat 9/12 | at Spruce Mountain | W 48–0 |
| Sat 9/19 | vs. Cape Elizabeth | W 82–40 |
| Fri 9/25 | vs. Ellsworth | W 60–8 |
| Sat 10/3 | at MDI | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | at Mt. Ararat | |
| Fri 10/16 | vs. Orono | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Gray-NG |
MDI this season
| Fri 9/4 | at Mt. Ararat | W 25–7 |
| Sat 9/12 | vs. Old Town | L 12–50 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Bucksport | L 24–36 |
| Sat 9/26 | at Waterville | W 44–16 |
| Sat 10/3 | vs. Yarmouth | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | at Ellsworth | |
| Sat 10/17 | vs. Houlton | |
| Sat 10/24 | vs. Telstar |
Recent meetings
| 2025 | MDI 12, Yarmouth 36 |
From the past seasons in our records.
Quick answers
When and where do Yarmouth and MDI play?
Yarmouth plays at MDI on Sat, Oct 3, 2026 at 1:00 PM, at MDI HS.
Who has the better chance, Yarmouth or MDI?
Yarmouth. Our power rating gives Yarmouth an est. 96% chance to win, by est. 29 points.
What is Yarmouth's record and Crabtree place?
Yarmouth is 4–0 and #1 of 6 in 8-Man Large South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is MDI's record and Crabtree place?
MDI is 2–2 and #3 of 5 in 8-Man Large North in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for MDI's playoff seeding?
With a win, MDI finishes the week between #1 to #3 in 8-Man Large North; with a loss, between #3 to #4, depending on the week's other results.
Can MDI still be #3 in 8-Man Large North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, MDI can finish the week #3 if Old Town beats Houlton. Our rating puts that at est. 97%.
What does this game mean for Yarmouth's playoff seeding?
With a win, Yarmouth finishes the week between #1 in 8-Man Large North; with a loss, between #1, depending on the week's other results.
Can Yarmouth still be #1 in 8-Man Large North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Yarmouth can finish the week #1. Our rating puts that at est. 100%.
Who won the last meeting between Yarmouth and MDI?
Yarmouth won the last meeting in our records, 36–12 in 2025.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.