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Mount Desert Island 8-Man Large North
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #4 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, MDI can finish as high as #1 and as low as #5: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, MDI is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves MDI's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where MDI lands.
| Date | Game | MDI's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/9 | vs Ellsworth | MDI wins → #2 in | Ellsworth wins → #3 in |
| Sat 10/17 | vs Houlton | MDI wins → #3 in | Houlton wins → #4 in |
MDI's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups MDI isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often MDI wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Mt. Ararat 8-Man Large South | W 25–7 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | Old Town 8-Man Large North | L 12–50 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Bucksport 8-Man Small North | L 24–36 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | at Waterville 8-Man Large North | W 44–16 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | Yarmouth 8-Man Large South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Ellsworth 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | Houlton 8-Man Large North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | Telstar 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Mt. Ararat | 0-4 | yes |
| Old Town | 3-1 | yes |
| Bucksport | 2-2 | yes |
| Waterville | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 6 wins / 16 games = 0.3750
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.3750) × 100 = 87.500
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 7.500, tournament index 4.3750 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
0.4 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -11.6 to 12.4) · rank #14 among 8-man teams · est. 6% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large North, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, +4.1 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Mt. Ararat | W 25–7 | +3.5 |
| Sat 9/12 Old Town | L 12–50 | -4.2 |
| Fri 9/18 at Bucksport | L 24–36 | -4.6 |
| Sat 9/26 at Waterville | W 44–16 | +2.8 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.