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Mt. Ararat 8-Man Large South
Projected final record 2–6 · projected #5 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Mt. Ararat can finish as high as #1 and as low as #6: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Mt. Ararat wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | MDI 8-Man Large North | L 7–25 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Lake Region 8-Man Large South | L 0–30 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Old Town 8-Man Large North | L 8–46 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Spruce Mountain 8-Man Large South | L 0–36 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Ellsworth 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Yarmouth 8-Man Large South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Gray-NG 8-Man Large South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | OOB 8-Man Small South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| MDI | 2-2 | yes |
| Lake Region | 1-3 | yes |
| Old Town | 3-1 | yes |
| Spruce Mountain | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 0 / 4 = 0.0000
Opponents pooled = 9 wins / 16 games = 0.5625
Crabtree = (0.0000 + 0.5625) × 100 = 56.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 1.000, tournament index 0.0000 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-7.4 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -19.5 to 4.7) · rank #16 among 8-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large South, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, +19.3 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 MDI | L 7–25 | -4.0 |
| Fri 9/11 at Lake Region | L 0–30 | -2.5 |
| Fri 9/18 at Old Town | L 8–46 | -0.0 |
| Fri 9/25 Spruce Mountain | L 0–36 | -1.8 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.