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Mt. Ararat at Ellsworth
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 7:00 PM · Ellsworth High School
Mt. Ararat team page Ellsworth team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Ellsworth, est. 93%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · 8-Man Large North Crabtree
Where Ellsworth and Mt. Ararat can land
Places #1 to #5 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #1 to #2 · Loss: #1 to #3
With a win: best is #1 est. 76% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Spruce Mountain beats Orono; Yarmouth beats MDI.
Even with a loss: best is #1 est. 4% chance
Has to happen Houlton beats Old Town; Yarmouth beats MDI.
Likeliest way also has Spruce Mountain beats Orono.
Win: #6 · Loss: #6
With a win: best is #6
#6 no matter what else happens this week.
Even with a loss: best is #6
#6 no matter what else happens this week.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 10 other games this weekend, including Sacopee Valley at Traip, Washington Academy at Stearns, Spruce Mountain at Orono, Old Town at Houlton, Cape Elizabeth at Waterville, OOB at Boothbay and 4 more. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Mt. Ararat has lost 4 straight
Mt. Ararat this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. MDI | L 7–25 |
| Fri 9/11 | at Lake Region | L 0–30 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Old Town | L 8–46 |
| Fri 9/25 | vs. Spruce Mountain | L 0–36 |
| Fri 10/2 | at Ellsworth | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | vs. Yarmouth | |
| Fri 10/16 | at Gray-NG | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. OOB |
Ellsworth this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. Bucksport | W 52–26 |
| Fri 9/11 | vs. Waterville | W 50–0 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Houlton | W 50–14 |
| Fri 9/25 | at Yarmouth | L 8–60 |
| Fri 10/2 | vs. Mt. Ararat | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | vs. MDI | |
| Fri 10/16 | at Stearns | |
| Fri 10/23 | at Old Town |
Recent meetings
| 2025 | Ellsworth 6, Mt. Ararat 54 |
From the past seasons in our records.
Quick answers
When and where do Mt. Ararat and Ellsworth play?
Mt. Ararat plays at Ellsworth on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM, at Ellsworth High School.
Who has the better chance, Mt. Ararat or Ellsworth?
Ellsworth. Our power rating gives Ellsworth an est. 87% chance to win, by est. 19 points.
What is Mt. Ararat's record and Crabtree place?
Mt. Ararat is 0–4 and #6 of 6 in 8-Man Large South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Ellsworth's record and Crabtree place?
Ellsworth is 3–1 and #2 of 5 in 8-Man Large North in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Ellsworth's playoff seeding?
With a win, Ellsworth finishes the week between #1 to #2 in 8-Man Large North; with a loss, between #1 to #3, depending on the week's other results.
Can Ellsworth still be #1 in 8-Man Large North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Ellsworth can finish the week #1 if Houlton beats Old Town, Yarmouth beats MDI and Spruce Mountain beats Orono. Our rating puts that at est. 4%.
What does this game mean for Mt. Ararat's playoff seeding?
With a win, Mt. Ararat finishes the week between #6 in 8-Man Large North; with a loss, between #6, depending on the week's other results.
Can Mt. Ararat still be #6 in 8-Man Large North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Mt. Ararat can finish the week #6. Our rating puts that at est. 100%.
Who won the last meeting between Mt. Ararat and Ellsworth?
Mt. Ararat won the last meeting in our records, 54–6 in 2025.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.