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Ellsworth/Sumner/Narraguagus 8-Man Large North
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #2 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Ellsworth can finish as high as #1 and as low as #5: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Ellsworth is the #2 seed
These are the games whose result moves Ellsworth's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Ellsworth lands.
| Date | Game | Ellsworth's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/9 | vs MDI | Ellsworth wins → #2 in | MDI wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Old Town | Ellsworth wins → #1 in | Old Town wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Old Town vs Houlton | Houlton wins → #1 in | Old Town wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Waterville vs Old Town | Waterville wins → #1 in | Old Town wins → #2 in |
Ellsworth's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Ellsworth isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Ellsworth wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Bucksport 8-Man Small North | W 52–26 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Waterville 8-Man Large North | W 50–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Houlton 8-Man Large North | W 50–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Yarmouth 8-Man Large South | L 8–60 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Mt. Ararat 8-Man Large South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | MDI 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Stearns 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Old Town 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Bucksport | 2-2 | yes |
| Waterville | 1-3 | yes |
| Houlton | 0-4 | yes |
| Yarmouth | 4-0 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 7 wins / 16 games = 0.4375
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.4375) × 100 = 118.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 10.000, tournament index 13.3036 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
9.1 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -2.8 to 21.0) · rank #6 among 8-man teams · est. 23% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large North, est. 1% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, -4.6 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Bucksport | W 52–26 | +3.0 |
| Fri 9/11 Waterville | W 50–0 | -0.6 |
| Fri 9/18 at Houlton | W 50–14 | +2.7 |
| Fri 9/25 at Yarmouth | L 8–60 | -0.5 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.