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Old Town 8-Man Large North
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Old Town can finish as high as #1 and as low as #5: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Old Town is the #1 seed
These are the games whose result moves Old Town's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Old Town lands.
| Date | Game | Old Town's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Houlton | Old Town wins → #1 in | Houlton wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Waterville | Old Town wins → #1 in | Waterville wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Ellsworth | Old Town wins → #1 in | Ellsworth wins → #2 in |
Old Town's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Old Town isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Old Town wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | at Orono 8-Man Small North | W 48–6 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | at MDI 8-Man Large North | W 50–12 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Mt. Ararat 8-Man Large South | W 46–8 | Recap → |
| Thu 9/24 | OOB 8-Man Small South | L 12–22 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Houlton 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Lake Region 8-Man Large South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Waterville 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Ellsworth 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Orono | 1-3 | yes |
| MDI | 2-2 | yes |
| Mt. Ararat | 0-4 | yes |
| OOB | 4-0 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 7 wins / 16 games = 0.4375
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.4375) × 100 = 118.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 10.000, tournament index 14.1964 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
17.7 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 5.7 to 29.7) · rank #2 among 8-man teams · est. 71% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large North, est. 7% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, -3.0 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 at Orono | W 48–6 | +6.3 |
| Sat 9/12 at MDI | W 50–12 | +3.7 |
| Fri 9/18 Mt. Ararat | W 46–8 | +0.0 |
| Thu 9/24 OOB | L 12–22 | -4.4 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.