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Old Town at Houlton
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 7:00 PM · Maliseet Athletic Field
Old Town team page Houlton team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Old Town, est. 99%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · 8-Man Large North Crabtree
Where Houlton and Old Town can land
Places #1 to #5 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #3 to #5 · Loss: #4 to #5
With a win: best is #3 est. 58% chance
Has to happen Ellsworth beats Mt. Ararat; Cape Elizabeth beats Waterville; Dexter beats Mount View; Yarmouth beats MDI.
Even with a loss: best is #4 est. 8% chance
Has to happen Mt. Ararat beats Ellsworth; Cape Elizabeth beats Waterville; OOB beats Boothbay; Dexter beats Mount View; Yarmouth beats MDI.
Win: #1 to #2 · Loss: #1 to #4
With a win: best is #1 est. 34% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Orono beats Spruce Mountain; Cape Elizabeth beats Waterville; OOB beats Boothbay.
Even with a loss: best is #1 est. 3% chance
Has to happen Orono beats Spruce Mountain; Mt. Ararat beats Ellsworth; Cape Elizabeth beats Waterville; OOB beats Boothbay.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 7 other games this weekend: Mt. Ararat at Ellsworth, Washington Academy at Stearns, Spruce Mountain at Orono, Cape Elizabeth at Waterville, OOB at Boothbay, Dexter at Mount View, Yarmouth at MDI. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Houlton has lost 4 straight
Old Town this season
| Thu 9/3 | at Orono | W 48–6 |
| Sat 9/12 | at MDI | W 50–12 |
| Fri 9/18 | vs. Mt. Ararat | W 46–8 |
| Thu 9/24 | vs. OOB | L 12–22 |
| Fri 10/2 | at Houlton | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | at Lake Region | |
| Fri 10/16 | vs. Waterville | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Ellsworth |
Houlton this season
| Fri 9/4 | at Washington Academy | L 14–36 |
| Sat 9/12 | vs. Stearns | L 0–56 |
| Fri 9/18 | vs. Ellsworth | L 14–50 |
| Fri 9/25 | at Dexter | L 13–20 |
| Fri 10/2 | vs. Old Town | this game |
| Sat 10/10 | vs. Waterville | |
| Sat 10/17 | at MDI | |
| Sat 10/24 | at Cape Elizabeth |
Quick answers
When and where do Old Town and Houlton play?
Old Town plays at Houlton on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM, at Maliseet Athletic Field.
Who has the better chance, Old Town or Houlton?
Old Town. Our power rating gives Old Town an est. 95% chance to win, by est. 28 points.
What is Old Town's record and Crabtree place?
Old Town is 3–1 and #1 of 5 in 8-Man Large North in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Houlton's record and Crabtree place?
Houlton is 0–4 and #5 of 5 in 8-Man Large North in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Houlton's playoff seeding?
With a win, Houlton finishes the week between #3 to #5 in 8-Man Large North; with a loss, between #4 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Houlton still be #4 in 8-Man Large North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Houlton can finish the week #4 if Mt. Ararat beats Ellsworth, Cape Elizabeth beats Waterville, OOB beats Boothbay, Dexter beats Mount View and Yarmouth beats MDI. Our rating puts that at est. 8%.
What does this game mean for Old Town's playoff seeding?
With a win, Old Town finishes the week between #1 to #2 in 8-Man Large North; with a loss, between #1 to #4, depending on the week's other results.
Can Old Town still be #1 in 8-Man Large North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Old Town can finish the week #1 if Orono beats Spruce Mountain, Mt. Ararat beats Ellsworth, Cape Elizabeth beats Waterville and OOB beats Boothbay. Our rating puts that at est. 3%.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.