niftiIQ power ratings · Maine HS football

Read this first. This rating is not the official standings and has no bearing on the playoffs. It is a statistical estimate of how many points better or worse than an average Maine team each program is, from 153 games this season plus a starting point carried over from the last two seasons. Backtested on 2023–2025: picked 78.0% of 11-man games from week 3 on, against 73.3% for "take the higher Crabtree team": full accuracy page. Teams are ranked only after 3 games. Estimated home-field edge this season: 2.8 points; typical game noise 13.0 points.

How the classes compare right now. Each class has an estimated average; a team starts as an average team of its class (adjusted by last season) and its games move it from there. Gaps are shown with their uncertainty and the number of cross-class games behind them; with few games the gap leans on the mild assumption that classes are near each other (which three seasons of history support).

Classes	Gap (pts)	± (80%)	Games between them
A vs B	+3.7	11.5	6
A vs C	+10.2	12.0	0 not linked this season
A vs D	+11.1	12.0	0 not linked this season
B vs C	+6.4	11.9	1
B vs D	+7.4	11.9	1
C vs D	+0.9	12.4	5
8L vs 8S	+1.0	12.9	15

Two separate lists, on purpose. 11-man teams (Classes A–D) and 8-man teams never play each other, so their ratings live on two different scales and can't be compared. Within 11-man, classes are linked only by the games played across classes, 13 so far this season, so a Class C team rated near a Class A team means "has played its schedule about as well," not "would beat them." Those cross-class links get more reliable every week.

#	Team	Division	Games	Rating	80% band	Prior share
1	Thornton	Class A South	4	+34.0	23.3 to 44.7	20%
2	Bonny Eagle	Class A South	4	+30.7	19.6 to 41.8	20%
3	Portland	Class A North	4	+24.7	13.2 to 36.2	20%
4	Oxford Hills	Class A North	3	+22.8	10.4 to 35.3	25%
5	Massabesic	Class A South	4	+19.7	8.7 to 30.7	20%
6	Lawrence	Class B North	4	+19.4	8.0 to 30.7	20%
7	South Portland	Class A South	4	+18.5	7.5 to 29.5	20%
8	Noble	Class A South	4	+15.2	4.4 to 25.9	20%
9	Cony	Class B North	4	+14.8	3.3 to 26.2	20%
10	Fryeburg	Class B North	4	+13.1	1.8 to 24.4	20%
11	Leavitt	Class C	4	+12.6	0.9 to 24.3	20%
12	Marshwood	Class B South	4	+12.3	1.6 to 23.0	20%
13	Bangor	Class A North	4	+12.1	0.7 to 23.5	20%
14	Falmouth	Class B South	4	+11.9	0.9 to 22.9	20%
15	Kennebunk	Class B South	4	+11.4	0.5 to 22.4	20%
16	Cheverus	Class B South	4	+9.6	-1.4 to 20.5	20%
17	Windham	Class A North	4	+9.4	-2.1 to 20.9	20%
18	Hermon	Class C	4	+8.2	-3.3 to 19.7	20%
19	Westbrook	Class B South	4	+7.9	-2.9 to 18.7	20%
20	Edward Little	Class A North	3	+7.7	-4.7 to 20.2	25%
21	Greely	Class C	4	+5.6	-6.2 to 17.5	20%
22	Scarborough	Class A South	4	+5.3	-5.9 to 16.5	20%
23	Biddeford	Class B South	4	+4.5	-6.1 to 15.1	20%
24	Foxcroft	Class C	4	+2.4	-9.0 to 13.9	20%
25	Skowhegan	Class B North	4	+1.6	-9.9 to 13.1	20%
26	Winthrop	Class D South	4	-1.3	-13.2 to 10.5	20%
27	Winslow	Class D North	4	-1.4	-12.9 to 10.0	20%
28	Mt. Blue	Class B North	4	-1.7	-13.2 to 9.7	20%
29	Camden Hills	Class B North	4	-2.9	-13.7 to 7.9	20%
30	Gardiner	Class C	4	-3.2	-14.9 to 8.6	20%
31	Freeport	Class D South	4	-3.2	-15.0 to 8.5	20%
32	Deering	Class A North	4	-3.6	-15.3 to 8.2	20%
33	Messalonskee	Class B North	4	-4.5	-15.5 to 6.4	20%
34	Sanford	Class A South	4	-5.1	-16.1 to 5.9	20%
35	Brunswick	Class B North	4	-5.3	-16.5 to 5.8	20%
36	Wells	Class C	4	-6.8	-18.2 to 4.6	20%
37	Gorham	Class B South	4	-9.8	-20.7 to 1.0	20%
38	Oceanside	Class C	4	-12.0	-23.4 to -0.5	20%
39	Lewiston	Class A North	4	-12.3	-23.5 to -1.1	20%
40	Nokomis	Class C	4	-13.4	-25.1 to -1.6	20%
41	Morse	Class D South	4	-14.3	-25.5 to -3.0	20%
42	John Bapst	Class D North	4	-15.5	-27.2 to -3.9	20%
43	Dirigo	Class D South	4	-17.0	-28.6 to -5.3	20%
44	Medomak Valley	Class C	4	-17.6	-28.7 to -6.6	20%
45	York	Class C	4	-19.1	-30.8 to -7.3	20%
46	Madison	Class D North	3	-21.6	-33.6 to -9.5	25%
47	MCI	Class D North	4	-22.2	-33.7 to -10.8	20%
48	Poland	Class D South	4	-23.2	-34.9 to -11.4	20%
49	Lisbon	Class D South	3	-23.5	-35.8 to -11.1	25%
50	Mattanawcook	Class D North	4	-24.5	-36.1 to -13.0	20%
51	Brewer	Class C	4	-27.0	-38.6 to -15.5	20%
52	Oak Hill	Class D North	4	-29.2	-40.8 to -17.6	20%
53	Hampden	Class C	4	-30.8	-42.2 to -19.4	20%
54	Mountain Valley	Class D South	4	-32.7	-44.5 to -21.0	20%
55	Belfast	Class D North	4	-37.4	-48.7 to -26.1	20%

#	Team	Division	Games	Rating	80% band	Prior share
1	Yarmouth	8-Man Large South	4	+32.5	20.5 to 44.6	20%
2	Old Town	8-Man Large North	4	+17.7	5.7 to 29.7	20%
3	OOB	8-Man Small South	4	+17.6	5.6 to 29.5	20%
4	Spruce Mountain	8-Man Large South	4	+17.3	5.2 to 29.4	20%
5	Stearns	8-Man Small North	4	+15.8	3.9 to 27.8	20%
6	Ellsworth	8-Man Large North	4	+9.1	-2.8 to 21.0	20%
7	Lake Region	8-Man Large South	4	+6.7	-5.4 to 18.8	20%
8	Cape Elizabeth	8-Man Large South	4	+6.1	-5.8 to 18.1	20%
9	Gray-NG	8-Man Large South	3	+5.2	-7.3 to 17.7	25%
10	Orono	8-Man Small North	4	+3.8	-8.1 to 15.8	20%
11	Maranacook	8-Man Small South	3	+3.1	-9.6 to 15.8	25%
12	Washington Academy	8-Man Small North	4	+2.5	-9.6 to 14.5	20%
13	Telstar	8-Man Small South	4	+0.7	-11.2 to 12.6	20%
14	MDI	8-Man Large North	4	+0.4	-11.6 to 12.4	20%
15	Bucksport	8-Man Small North	4	-4.2	-16.1 to 7.8	20%
16	Mt. Ararat	8-Man Large South	4	-7.4	-19.5 to 4.7	20%
17	Boothbay	8-Man Small South	3	-7.8	-20.3 to 4.8	25%
18	Houlton	8-Man Large North	4	-13.6	-25.6 to -1.6	20%
19	Dexter	8-Man Small North	4	-15.3	-27.4 to -3.1	20%
20	Traip	8-Man Small South	4	-17.6	-29.7 to -5.6	20%
21	Waterville	8-Man Large North	4	-18.2	-30.1 to -6.3	20%
22	Sacopee Valley	8-Man Small South	4	-18.9	-31.0 to -6.9	20%
23	Mount View	8-Man Small South	3	-30.8	-43.4 to -18.3	25%

How it works

Every final game gives one equation: credited margin = rating(home) − rating(away) + home edge. Points past three touchdowns count half, past five nothing (a 24-point win is not the same as a 60-point win, and piling on buys nothing). We solve every equation at once (least squares) each time a result is entered: no game-order effect, unlike Elo. Each team starts the season as an average team of its class, moved by 80% of where it finished last season relative to its class (three-quarters last year, a quarter the year before); that starting point carries the weight of 1.0 game and fades as real games arrive: the "prior share" column says how much of it is left. The class averages are estimated from cross-class games. The 80% band is the statistical uncertainty of the fit. Parameters were chosen by testing on 2023–2024 and confirmed on 2025 (accuracy); every choice is logged in the project's DECISIONS file. 11-man and 8-man are rated as two separate pools because they never meet.