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Edward Little Class A North
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #6 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Edward Little can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Edward Little is the #4 seed
These are the games whose result moves Edward Little's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Edward Little lands.
| Date | Game | Edward Little's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Scarborough in/out | Edward Little wins → #4 in | Scarborough wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Windham in/out | Edward Little wins → #4 in | Windham wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Mt. Blue in/out | Edward Little wins → #4 in | Mt. Blue wins → #5 out |
| Sat 10/31 | vs Lewiston in/out | Edward Little wins → #4 in | Lewiston wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Bangor vs Portland in/out | Portland wins → #4 in | Bangor wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/30 | other game: Oxford Hills vs Bangor in/out | Oxford Hills wins → #4 in | Bangor wins → #5 out |
Edward Little's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Edward Little isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Edward Little wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Deering Class A North | W 46–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Salem (NH) non-MPA | canceled | Preview → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Oxford Hills Class A North | L 7–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Portland Class A North | L 7–35 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Scarborough Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Windham Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Bangor Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Mt. Blue Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/31 | Lewiston Class A North | 12:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Deering | 1-3 | yes |
| Oxford Hills | 3-0 | yes |
| Portland | 4-0 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 3 = 0.3333
Opponents pooled = 8 wins / 11 games = 0.7273
Crabtree = (0.3333 + 0.7273) × 100 = 106.061
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 8.750, tournament index 9.7222 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
7.7 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -4.7 to 20.2) · rank #20 among 11-man teams · est. 4% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
3 games of evidence; 25% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, -14.0 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Deering | W 46–14 | +6.8 |
| Fri 9/18 at Oxford Hills | L 7–28 | -1.1 |
| Fri 9/25 at Portland | L 7–35 | -2.0 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.