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Portland Class A North
Projected final record 5–4 · projected #2 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Portland can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Portland is the #2 seed
These are the games whose result moves Portland's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Portland lands.
| Date | Game | Portland's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/3 | vs Thornton | Portland wins → #1 in | Thornton wins → #2 in |
| Sat 10/17 | vs Oxford Hills | Portland wins → #1 in | Oxford Hills wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Oxford Hills vs Lewiston | Lewiston wins → #1 in | Oxford Hills wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/23 | other game: Noble vs Oxford Hills | Noble wins → #1 in | Oxford Hills wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/30 | other game: Oxford Hills vs Bangor | Bangor wins → #1 in | Oxford Hills wins → #2 in |
Portland's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Portland isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Portland wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Lewiston Class A North | W 40–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Scarborough Class A South | W 25–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Windham Class A North | W 39–13 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Edward Little Class A North | W 35–7 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | at Thornton Class A South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Bangor Class A North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | at Oxford Hills Class A North | 12:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Deering Class A North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at South Portland Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Lewiston | 0-4 | yes |
| Scarborough | 0-4 | yes |
| Windham | 2-2 | yes |
| Edward Little | 1-2 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 4 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 3 wins / 15 games = 0.2000
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.2000) × 100 = 120.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 31.111, tournament index 29.2284 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
24.7 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 13.2 to 36.2) · rank #3 among 11-man teams · est. 47% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A North, est. 10% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, +7.3 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Lewiston | W 40–14 | -3.7 |
| Fri 9/11 at Scarborough | W 25–0 | +2.4 |
| Fri 9/18 Windham | W 39–13 | +1.6 |
| Fri 9/25 Edward Little | W 35–7 | +1.2 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.