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Windham Class A North
Projected final record 5–4 · projected #3 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Windham can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Windham is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves Windham's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Windham lands.
| Date | Game | Windham's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/23 | vs Lewiston in/out | Windham wins → #3 in | Lewiston wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Deering in/out | Windham wins → #3 in | Deering wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Falmouth | Windham wins → #3 in | Falmouth wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Bangor vs Portland | Portland wins → #3 in | Bangor wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Oxford Hills vs Bonny Eagle | Bonny Eagle wins → #3 in | Oxford Hills wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Edward Little vs Bangor | Bangor wins → #3 in | Edward Little wins → #4 in |
Windham's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Windham isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Windham wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Oxford Hills Class A North | L 14–34 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Sanford Class A South | W 28–7 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Portland Class A North | L 13–39 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Bangor Class A North | W 21–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Bonny Eagle Class A South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Edward Little Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Falmouth Class B South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Lewiston Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at Deering Class A North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford Hills | 3-0 | yes |
| Sanford | 0-4 | yes |
| Portland | 4-0 | yes |
| Bangor | 2-2 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 9 wins / 15 games = 0.6000
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.6000) × 100 = 110.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 15.556, tournament index 20.5556 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
9.4 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -2.1 to 20.9) · rank #17 among 11-man teams · est. 3% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, -3.6 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Oxford Hills | L 14–34 | -2.5 |
| Fri 9/11 Sanford | W 28–7 | +1.5 |
| Fri 9/18 at Portland | L 13–39 | -1.7 |
| Fri 9/25 at Bangor | W 21–14 | +3.8 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.