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Bonny Eagle Class A South
Projected final record 6–3 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Bonny Eagle can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Bonny Eagle is the #2 seed
These are the games whose result moves Bonny Eagle's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Bonny Eagle lands.
| Date | Game | Bonny Eagle's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/24 | vs Thornton | Bonny Eagle wins → #1 in | Thornton wins → #2 in |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Portland vs Thornton | Portland wins → #1 in | Thornton wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Thornton vs Noble | Noble wins → #1 in | Thornton wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Sanford vs Thornton | Sanford wins → #1 in | Thornton wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/30 | other game: Thornton vs Massabesic | Massabesic wins → #1 in | Thornton wins → #2 in |
Bonny Eagle's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Bonny Eagle isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Bonny Eagle wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | South Portland Class A South | W 21–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Noble Class A South | W 41–19 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Massabesic Class A South | W 27–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Scarborough Class A South | W 42–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Windham Class A North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Oxford Hills Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Exeter (NH) non-MPA | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at Thornton Class A South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Sanford Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| South Portland | 2-2 | yes |
| Noble | 2-2 | yes |
| Massabesic | 3-1 | yes |
| Scarborough | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 4 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 7 wins / 16 games = 0.4375
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.4375) × 100 = 143.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 31.111, tournament index 50.4938 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
30.7 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 19.6 to 41.8) · rank #2 among 11-man teams · est. 34% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A South, est. 24% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, +13.8 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 South Portland | W 21–14 | -2.5 |
| Fri 9/11 at Noble | W 41–19 | +3.5 |
| Fri 9/18 at Massabesic | W 27–14 | +1.6 |
| Fri 9/25 Scarborough | W 42–6 | -0.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.