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Scarborough Class A South
Projected final record 5–4 · projected #6 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Scarborough can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Scarborough is the #6 seed
These are the games whose result moves Scarborough's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Scarborough lands.
| Date | Game | Scarborough's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/10 | vs Sanford | Scarborough wins → #6 out | Sanford wins → #7 out |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Noble | Scarborough wins → #5 out | Noble wins → #6 out |
Scarborough's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Scarborough isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Scarborough wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Thornton Class A South | L 0–56 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Portland Class A North | L 0–25 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | South Portland Class A South | L 13–20 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Bonny Eagle Class A South | L 6–42 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Edward Little Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/10 | Sanford Class A South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Gorham Class B South | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Massabesic Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Noble Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Thornton | 4-0 | yes |
| Portland | 4-0 | yes |
| South Portland | 2-2 | yes |
| Bonny Eagle | 4-0 | yes |
Own win% = 0 / 4 = 0.0000
Opponents pooled = 14 wins / 16 games = 0.8750
Crabtree = (0.0000 + 0.8750) × 100 = 87.500
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 1.000, tournament index 0.0000 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
5.3 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -5.9 to 16.5) · rank #22 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, -7.0 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Thornton | L 0–56 | +1.4 |
| Fri 9/11 Portland | L 0–25 | -1.8 |
| Fri 9/18 South Portland | L 13–20 | +1.0 |
| Fri 9/25 at Bonny Eagle | L 6–42 | +0.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.