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South Portland Class A South
Projected final record 5–4 · projected #3 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, South Portland can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, South Portland is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves South Portland's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where South Portland lands.
| Date | Game | South Portland's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Sanford | South Portland wins → #3 in | Sanford wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Massabesic | South Portland wins → #3 in | Massabesic wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Noble | South Portland wins → #3 in | Noble wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Winnacunnet (NH) | South Portland wins → #3 in | Winnacunnet (NH) wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/30 | other game: Thornton vs Massabesic | Thornton wins → #3 in | Massabesic wins → #4 in |
South Portland's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups South Portland isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often South Portland wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Bonny Eagle Class A South | L 14–21 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Thornton Class A South | L 21–35 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Scarborough Class A South | W 20–13 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Cheverus Class B South | W 27–20 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Sanford Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Massabesic Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Noble Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Winnacunnet (NH) non-MPA | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Portland Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Bonny Eagle | 4-0 | yes |
| Thornton | 4-0 | yes |
| Scarborough | 0-4 | yes |
| Cheverus | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 9 wins / 16 games = 0.5625
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.5625) × 100 = 106.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 14.444, tournament index 9.4444 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
18.5 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 7.5 to 29.5) · rank #7 among 11-man teams · est. 4% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A South, est. 3% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, +4.8 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Bonny Eagle | L 14–21 | +2.1 |
| Fri 9/11 Thornton | L 21–35 | -0.5 |
| Fri 9/18 at Scarborough | W 20–13 | -0.8 |
| Fri 9/25 Cheverus | W 27–20 | -0.5 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.