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Cheverus/Waynflete Coop Class B South
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #2 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class B South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Cheverus can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Cheverus is the #4 seed
These are the games whose result moves Cheverus's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Cheverus lands.
| Date | Game | Cheverus's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/23 | vs Biddeford | Cheverus wins → #4 in | Biddeford wins → #6 in |
| Sat 10/3 | vs Gorham | Cheverus wins → #4 in | Gorham wins → #5 in |
| Sat 10/10 | vs Marshwood | Cheverus wins → #4 in | Marshwood wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Deering | Cheverus wins → #4 in | Deering wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Deering vs Kennebunk | Deering wins → #3 in | Kennebunk wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Marshwood vs Falmouth | Marshwood wins → #3 in | Falmouth wins → #4 in |
Cheverus's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Cheverus isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Cheverus wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | at Westbrook Class B South | L 9–15 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | Falmouth Class B South | W 37–25 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | Kennebunk Class B South | L 17–21 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at South Portland Class A South | L 20–27 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | Gorham Class B South | 12:30 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/10 | Marshwood Class B South | 12:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Deering Class A North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Biddeford Class B South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Westbrook | 1-3 | yes |
| Falmouth | 2-2 | yes |
| Kennebunk | 3-1 | yes |
| South Portland | 2-2 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 8 wins / 16 games = 0.5000
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.5000) × 100 = 75.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 7.500, tournament index 18.7500 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
9.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -1.4 to 20.5) · rank #16 among 11-man teams · est. 14% chance of being the top-rated team in Class B South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average B team, +2.6 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 at Westbrook | L 9–15 | -1.5 |
| Sat 9/12 Falmouth | W 37–25 | +2.9 |
| Sat 9/19 Kennebunk | L 17–21 | -1.4 |
| Fri 9/25 at South Portland | L 20–27 | +0.5 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.