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Kennebunk Class B South
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #4 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class B South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Kennebunk can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Kennebunk is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves Kennebunk's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Kennebunk lands.
| Date | Game | Kennebunk's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Deering | Kennebunk wins → #3 in | Deering wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Fryeburg | Kennebunk wins → #1 in | Fryeburg wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Westbrook | Kennebunk wins → #3 in | Westbrook wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Marshwood | Kennebunk wins → #1 in | Marshwood wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Marshwood vs Falmouth | Marshwood wins → #2 in | Falmouth wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Falmouth vs Gorham | Gorham wins → #2 in | Falmouth wins → #3 in |
Kennebunk's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Kennebunk isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Kennebunk wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | Falmouth Class B South | W 33–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Massabesic Class A South | L 0–26 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | at Cheverus Class B South | W 21–17 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | Gorham Class B South | W 43–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Deering Class A North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Fryeburg Class B North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Westbrook Class B South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Marshwood Class B South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Falmouth | 2-2 | yes |
| Massabesic | 3-1 | yes |
| Cheverus | 1-3 | yes |
| Gorham | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 6 wins / 16 games = 0.3750
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.3750) × 100 = 112.500
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 22.500, tournament index 29.3750 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
11.4 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 0.5 to 22.4) · rank #15 among 11-man teams · est. 21% chance of being the top-rated team in Class B South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average B team, +12.0 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 Falmouth | W 33–28 | +0.7 |
| Fri 9/11 at Massabesic | L 0–26 | -7.9 |
| Sat 9/19 at Cheverus | W 21–17 | +1.4 |
| Sat 9/26 Gorham | W 43–0 | +1.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.