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Fryeburg Academy Class B North
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class B North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Fryeburg can finish as high as #1 and as low as #8: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Fryeburg is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves Fryeburg's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Fryeburg lands.
| Date | Game | Fryeburg's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 10/8 | other game: Camden Hills vs Cony | Camden Hills wins → #2 in | Cony wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Brunswick vs Cony | Brunswick wins → #2 in | Cony wins → #3 in |
Fryeburg's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Fryeburg isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Fryeburg wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Cony Class B North | L 21–25 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Lawrence Class B North | L 14–27 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Brunswick Class B North | W 44–20 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | Camden Hills Class B North | W 42–10 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Messalonskee Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Kennebunk Class B South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Mt. Blue Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Skowhegan Class B North | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Cony | 4-0 | yes |
| Lawrence | 4-0 | yes |
| Brunswick | 1-3 | yes |
| Camden Hills | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 10 wins / 16 games = 0.6250
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.6250) × 100 = 112.500
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 15.000, tournament index 17.1875 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
13.1 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 1.8 to 24.4) · rank #10 among 11-man teams · est. 21% chance of being the top-rated team in Class B North, est. 1% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average B team, +3.5 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Cony | L 21–25 | -1.4 |
| Fri 9/11 at Lawrence | L 14–27 | -1.1 |
| Fri 9/18 at Brunswick | W 44–20 | +2.1 |
| Sat 9/26 Camden Hills | W 42–10 | +2.9 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.