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Brunswick Class B North
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #6 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class B North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Brunswick can finish as high as #1 and as low as #8: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Brunswick is the #7 seed
These are the games whose result moves Brunswick's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Brunswick lands.
| Date | Game | Brunswick's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/3 | vs Mt. Blue in/out | Brunswick wins → #5 in | Mt. Blue wins → #7 out |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Lawrence in/out | Brunswick wins → #5 in | Lawrence wins → #7 out |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Cony in/out | Brunswick wins → #5 in | Cony wins → #7 out |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Mt. Blue vs Messalonskee in/out | Mt. Blue wins → #6 in | Messalonskee wins → #7 out |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Camden Hills | Brunswick wins → #7 out | Camden Hills wins → #8 out |
Brunswick's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Brunswick isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Brunswick wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | at Biddeford Class B South | L 6–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Messalonskee Class B North | W 28–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Fryeburg Class B North | L 20–44 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Skowhegan Class B North | L 17–19 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | Mt. Blue Class B North | 12:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Lawrence Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Cony Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Camden Hills Class B North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Biddeford | 3-1 | yes |
| Messalonskee | 2-2 | yes |
| Fryeburg | 2-2 | yes |
| Skowhegan | 2-2 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 9 wins / 16 games = 0.5625
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.5625) × 100 = 81.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 7.500, tournament index 20.3125 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-5.3 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -16.5 to 5.8) · rank #35 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class B North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average B team, -13.5 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 at Biddeford | L 6–28 | -3.5 |
| Fri 9/11 Messalonskee | W 28–14 | +4.0 |
| Fri 9/18 Fryeburg | L 20–44 | -1.9 |
| Fri 9/25 at Skowhegan | L 17–19 | +2.0 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.