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Mt. Blue Class B North
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #3 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class B North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Mt. Blue can finish as high as #1 and as low as #8: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Mt. Blue is the #6 seed
These are the games whose result moves Mt. Blue's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Mt. Blue lands.
| Date | Game | Mt. Blue's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/3 | vs Brunswick in/out | Mt. Blue wins → #6 in | Brunswick wins → #7 out |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Brunswick vs Lawrence in/out | Lawrence wins → #6 in | Brunswick wins → #7 out |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Brunswick vs Cony in/out | Cony wins → #6 in | Brunswick wins → #7 out |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Messalonskee | Mt. Blue wins → #5 in | Messalonskee wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Fryeburg | Mt. Blue wins → #5 in | Fryeburg wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Edward Little | Mt. Blue wins → #5 in | Edward Little wins → #6 in |
Mt. Blue's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Mt. Blue isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Mt. Blue wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Skowhegan Class B North | L 21–26 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | at Camden Hills Class B North | W 30–12 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Cony Class B North | L 0–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Lawrence Class B North | L 6–49 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | at Brunswick Class B North | 12:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Messalonskee Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Fryeburg Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Edward Little Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Skowhegan | 2-2 | yes |
| Camden Hills | 1-3 | yes |
| Cony | 4-0 | yes |
| Lawrence | 4-0 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 11 wins / 16 games = 0.6875
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.6875) × 100 = 93.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 7.500, tournament index 7.8125 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-1.7 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -13.2 to 9.7) · rank #28 among 11-man teams · est. 1% chance of being the top-rated team in Class B North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average B team, -11.1 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Skowhegan | L 21–26 | -1.1 |
| Sat 9/12 at Camden Hills | W 30–12 | +7.9 |
| Fri 9/18 Cony | L 0–14 | -0.1 |
| Fri 9/25 Lawrence | L 6–49 | -2.7 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.