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Messalonskee Class B North
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #8 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class B North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Messalonskee can finish as high as #1 and as low as #8: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Messalonskee is the #5 seed
These are the games whose result moves Messalonskee's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Messalonskee lands.
| Date | Game | Messalonskee's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/9 | vs Mt. Blue in/out | Messalonskee wins → #5 in | Mt. Blue wins → #7 out |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Skowhegan | Messalonskee wins → #4 in | Skowhegan wins → #5 in |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Mt. Blue vs Brunswick | Mt. Blue wins → #5 in | Brunswick wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Brunswick vs Lawrence | Lawrence wins → #5 in | Brunswick wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Brunswick vs Cony | Cony wins → #5 in | Brunswick wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Fryeburg vs Mt. Blue | Fryeburg wins → #5 in | Mt. Blue wins → #6 in |
Messalonskee's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Messalonskee isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Messalonskee wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Camden Hills Class B North | W 20–15 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Brunswick Class B North | L 14–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Lewiston Class A North | W 29–7 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Cony Class B North | L 14–41 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Fryeburg Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Mt. Blue Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Skowhegan Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Lawrence Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Camden Hills | 1-3 | yes |
| Brunswick | 1-3 | yes |
| Lewiston | 0-4 | yes |
| Cony | 4-0 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 6 wins / 16 games = 0.3750
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.3750) × 100 = 87.500
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 16.250, tournament index 9.0625 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-4.5 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -15.5 to 6.4) · rank #33 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class B North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average B team, -5.8 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Camden Hills | W 20–15 | +1.2 |
| Fri 9/11 at Brunswick | L 14–28 | -3.2 |
| Fri 9/18 Lewiston | W 29–7 | +4.0 |
| Fri 9/25 at Cony | L 14–41 | -0.5 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.