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Fryeburg at Messalonskee
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 7:00 PM · Messalonskee
Fryeburg team page Messalonskee team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Fryeburg, est. 87%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · Class B North Crabtree
Where Messalonskee and Fryeburg can land
Places #1 to #8 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #3 to #6 · Loss: #5 to #7
With a win: best is #3 est. 16% chance
Has to happen Camden Hills beats Skowhegan.
Likeliest way also has Cony beats Lawrence.
Even with a loss: best is #5 est. 4% chance
Has to happen Brunswick beats Mt. Blue; Camden Hills beats Skowhegan.
Likeliest way also has Westbrook beats Biddeford; Cony beats Lawrence.
Win: #3 · Loss: #3 to #5
With a win: best is #3
#3 no matter what else happens this week.
Even with a loss: best is #3 est. 30% chance
Has to happen Oxford Hills beats Lewiston; Lawrence beats Cony; Camden Hills beats Skowhegan.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 7 other games this weekend: Oxford Hills at Lewiston, Westbrook at Biddeford, Cony at Lawrence, Greely at Medomak Valley, Skowhegan at Camden Hills, Gorham at Cheverus, Mt. Blue at Brunswick. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Both played Camden Hills: Messalonskee won by 5, Fryeburg won by 32
Fryeburg this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. Cony | L 21–25 |
| Fri 9/11 | at Lawrence | L 14–27 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Brunswick | W 44–20 |
| Sat 9/26 | vs. Camden Hills | W 42–10 |
| Fri 10/2 | at Messalonskee | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | vs. Kennebunk | |
| Fri 10/16 | at Mt. Blue | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Skowhegan |
Messalonskee this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. Camden Hills | W 20–15 |
| Fri 9/11 | at Brunswick | L 14–28 |
| Fri 9/18 | vs. Lewiston | W 29–7 |
| Fri 9/25 | at Cony | L 14–41 |
| Fri 10/2 | vs. Fryeburg | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | vs. Mt. Blue | |
| Fri 10/16 | at Skowhegan | |
| Fri 10/23 | at Lawrence |
Recent meetings
| 2025 | Messalonskee 20, Fryeburg 37 |
From the past seasons in our records.
Quick answers
When and where do Fryeburg and Messalonskee play?
Fryeburg plays at Messalonskee on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM, at Messalonskee.
Who has the better chance, Fryeburg or Messalonskee?
Fryeburg. Our power rating gives Fryeburg an est. 81% chance to win, by est. 15 points.
What is Fryeburg's record and Crabtree place?
Fryeburg is 2–2 and #4 of 8 in Class B North in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Messalonskee's record and Crabtree place?
Messalonskee is 2–2 and #6 of 8 in Class B North in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Messalonskee's playoff seeding?
With a win, Messalonskee finishes the week between #3 to #6 in Class B North; with a loss, between #5 to #7, depending on the week's other results.
Can Messalonskee still be #5 in Class B North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Messalonskee can finish the week #5 if Brunswick beats Mt. Blue, Camden Hills beats Skowhegan, Westbrook beats Biddeford and Cony beats Lawrence. Our rating puts that at est. 4%.
What does this game mean for Fryeburg's playoff seeding?
With a win, Fryeburg finishes the week between #3 in Class B North; with a loss, between #3 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Fryeburg still be #3 in Class B North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Fryeburg can finish the week #3 if Oxford Hills beats Lewiston, Lawrence beats Cony and Camden Hills beats Skowhegan. Our rating puts that at est. 30%.
Who won the last meeting between Fryeburg and Messalonskee?
Fryeburg won the last meeting in our records, 37–20 in 2025.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.