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Lewiston Class A North
Projected final record 2–6 · projected #7 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Lewiston can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Lewiston wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Portland Class A North | L 14–40 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Bangor Class A North | L 0–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Messalonskee Class B North | L 7–29 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Deering Class A North | L 6–26 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Oxford Hills Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Massabesic Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Windham Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/31 | at Edward Little Class A North | 12:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Portland | 4-0 | yes |
| Bangor | 2-2 | yes |
| Messalonskee | 2-2 | yes |
| Deering | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 0 / 4 = 0.0000
Opponents pooled = 9 wins / 16 games = 0.5625
Crabtree = (0.0000 + 0.5625) × 100 = 56.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 1.000, tournament index 0.0000 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-12.3 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -23.5 to -1.1) · rank #39 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, -16.0 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Portland | L 14–40 | +2.8 |
| Fri 9/11 Bangor | L 0–28 | -0.7 |
| Fri 9/18 at Messalonskee | L 7–29 | -4.7 |
| Fri 9/25 at Deering | L 6–26 | -1.9 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.