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Massabesic Class A South
Projected final record 5–4 · projected #5 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Massabesic can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Massabesic is the #4 seed
These are the games whose result moves Massabesic's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Massabesic lands.
| Date | Game | Massabesic's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Noble in/out | Massabesic wins → #4 in | Noble wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/9 | vs South Portland | Massabesic wins → #3 in | South Portland wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Thornton | Massabesic wins → #3 in | Thornton wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: South Portland vs Sanford | Sanford wins → #3 in | South Portland wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: South Portland vs Noble | Noble wins → #3 in | South Portland wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/23 | other game: Winnacunnet (NH) vs South Portland | Winnacunnet (NH) wins → #3 in | South Portland wins → #4 in |
Massabesic's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Massabesic isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Massabesic wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Bangor Class A North | W 22–18 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Kennebunk Class B South | W 26–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Bonny Eagle Class A South | L 14–27 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Sanford Class A South | W 28–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Noble Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at South Portland Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Lewiston Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Scarborough Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Thornton Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Bangor | 2-2 | yes |
| Kennebunk | 3-1 | yes |
| Bonny Eagle | 4-0 | yes |
| Sanford | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 9 wins / 16 games = 0.5625
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.5625) × 100 = 131.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 22.222, tournament index 45.5556 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
19.7 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 8.7 to 30.7) · rank #5 among 11-man teams · est. 5% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A South, est. 3% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, -1.8 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Bangor | W 22–18 | -0.2 |
| Fri 9/11 Kennebunk | W 26–0 | +8.2 |
| Fri 9/18 Bonny Eagle | L 14–27 | -1.4 |
| Fri 9/25 at Sanford | W 28–6 | -0.2 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.