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Noble Class A South
Projected final record 5–4 · projected #4 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Noble can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Noble is the #5 seed
These are the games whose result moves Noble's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Noble lands.
| Date | Game | Noble's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Massabesic in/out | Noble wins → #4 in | Massabesic wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Scarborough | Noble wins → #5 out | Scarborough wins → #6 out |
Noble's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Noble isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Noble wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Dover (NH) non-MPA | W 30–22 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Bonny Eagle Class A South | L 19–41 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Sanford Class A South | W 48–8 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Marshwood Class B South | L 51–52 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Massabesic Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Thornton Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | South Portland Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Oxford Hills Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at Scarborough Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Dover (NH) | 0-1 | 0-0 (non-MPA) |
| Bonny Eagle | 4-0 | yes |
| Sanford | 0-4 | yes |
| Marshwood | 4-0 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 8 wins / 12 games = 0.6667
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.6667) × 100 = 116.667
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 7.778, tournament index 1.1111 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
15.2 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 4.4 to 25.9) · rank #8 among 11-man teams · est. 1% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A South, est. 1% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, +6.8 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Dover (NH) | W 30–22 | -1.6 |
| Fri 9/11 Bonny Eagle | L 19–41 | -2.2 |
| Fri 9/18 Sanford | W 48–8 | +1.2 |
| Fri 9/25 at Marshwood | L 51–52 | +1.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.