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Marshwood Class B South
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #5 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class B South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Marshwood can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Marshwood is the #2 seed
These are the games whose result moves Marshwood's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Marshwood lands.
| Date | Game | Marshwood's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/16 | vs Biddeford | Marshwood wins → #2 in | Biddeford wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Kennebunk | Marshwood wins → #2 in | Kennebunk wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/2 | vs Falmouth | Marshwood wins → #1 in | Falmouth wins → #2 in |
| Sat 10/10 | vs Cheverus | Marshwood wins → #1 in | Cheverus wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Kennebunk vs Fryeburg | Fryeburg wins → #2 in | Kennebunk wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Falmouth vs Gorham | Gorham wins → #1 in | Falmouth wins → #2 in |
Marshwood's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Marshwood isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Marshwood wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | at Sanford Class A South | W 50–27 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Westbrook Class B South | W 8–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Gorham Class B South | W 32–12 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Noble Class A South | W 52–51 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Falmouth Class B South | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/10 | at Cheverus Class B South | 12:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Biddeford Class B South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Kennebunk Class B South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Sanford | 0-4 | yes |
| Westbrook | 1-3 | yes |
| Gorham | 0-4 | yes |
| Noble | 2-2 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 4 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 3 wins / 16 games = 0.1875
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.1875) × 100 = 118.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 32.500, tournament index 21.5972 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
12.3 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 1.6 to 23.0) · rank #12 among 11-man teams · est. 24% chance of being the top-rated team in Class B South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average B team, +5.7 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 at Sanford | W 50–27 | +1.4 |
| Fri 9/11 Westbrook | W 8–0 | +0.2 |
| Fri 9/18 at Gorham | W 32–12 | +0.2 |
| Fri 9/25 Noble | W 52–51 | -1.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.