More
Falmouth Class B South
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class B South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Falmouth can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Falmouth is the #1 seed
These are the games whose result moves Falmouth's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Falmouth lands.
| Date | Game | Falmouth's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Marshwood | Falmouth wins → #1 in | Marshwood wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Gorham | Falmouth wins → #1 in | Gorham wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Greely | Falmouth wins → #1 in | Greely wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Kennebunk vs Fryeburg | Fryeburg wins → #1 in | Kennebunk wins → #2 in |
| Sat 10/10 | other game: Marshwood vs Cheverus | Cheverus wins → #1 in | Marshwood wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/23 | other game: Kennebunk vs Marshwood | Marshwood wins → #1 in | Kennebunk wins → #2 in |
Falmouth's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Falmouth isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Falmouth wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | at Kennebunk Class B South | L 28–33 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | at Cheverus Class B South | L 25–37 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Westbrook Class B South | W 22–18 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Biddeford Class B South | W 38–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Marshwood Class B South | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Gorham Class B South | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Windham Class A North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Greely Class C | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Kennebunk | 3-1 | yes |
| Cheverus | 1-3 | yes |
| Westbrook | 1-3 | yes |
| Biddeford | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 8 wins / 16 games = 0.5000
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.5000) × 100 = 100.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 15.000, tournament index 34.3750 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
11.9 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 0.9 to 22.9) · rank #14 among 11-man teams · est. 24% chance of being the top-rated team in Class B South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average B team, +12.4 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 at Kennebunk | L 28–33 | -0.8 |
| Sat 9/12 at Cheverus | L 25–37 | -3.3 |
| Fri 9/18 Westbrook | W 22–18 | -0.9 |
| Fri 9/25 Biddeford | W 38–14 | +4.5 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.