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Greely Class C
Projected final record 6–3 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Greely can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Greely is the #2 seed
These are the games whose result moves Greely's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Greely lands.
| Date | Game | Greely's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/3 | vs Medomak Valley | Greely wins → #2 in | Medomak Valley wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Oceanside | Greely wins → #2 in | Oceanside wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Hermon | Greely wins → #2 in | Hermon wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Gardiner | Greely wins → #2 in | Gardiner wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/23 | other game: Leavitt vs Hermon | Leavitt wins → #2 in | Hermon wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/30 | other game: Foxcroft vs Leavitt | Leavitt wins → #2 in | Foxcroft wins → #3 in |
Greely's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Greely isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Greely wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | York Class C | W 48–0 | Recap → |
| Thu 9/10 | Leavitt Class C | L 12–30 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Wells Class C | W 34–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Nokomis Class C | W 35–7 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | at Medomak Valley Class C | 2:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Oceanside Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Hermon Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Falmouth Class B South | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at Gardiner Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| York | 0-4 | yes |
| Leavitt | 4-0 | yes |
| Wells | 2-2 | yes |
| Nokomis | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 7 wins / 16 games = 0.4375
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.4375) × 100 = 118.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 16.667, tournament index 18.3951 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
5.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -6.2 to 17.5) · rank #21 among 11-man teams · est. 17% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, +14.8 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 York | W 48–0 | +0.1 |
| Thu 9/10 Leavitt | L 12–30 | -3.9 |
| Fri 9/18 at Wells | W 34–14 | +3.7 |
| Fri 9/25 Nokomis | W 35–7 | +0.8 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.